Stat of the Day, 1st September 2012

Stat of the Day 01/09

Stat of the Day, 1st September 2012

Yesterday was one of those SotD days where it all went to plan! Our advised 13/2 crumbled as the day progressed into a starting price of 7/2: the headgear worked, so the horse made a better start than of late and he finished with his usual late burst.

I took 13/2 E/W, but I know many of you ended up with 7/2 as a straight win bet, so you didn’t actually miss too much profit that way. Saturday’s are notoriously tricky, but I intend to follow up yesterday’s win in a Group 3 Fillies & Mares race over a mile.

The ground is good to firm (good in places) and 16 runners are set to go to post for the Atalanta Stakes aka the…

3.25 Sandown

Sir Mark Prescott’s career stats at Sandown make for interesting reading, because they are quite simply excellent. Quite often on SotD, our sample size is fairly small, but we’re talking about 55 races this time. Yet, 55 races is a drop in the ocean for this trainer: it only represents around 1.6% of his total output. This would suggest that Sir Mark is very choosy about which of his charges he sends to this track.

His infrequent use of Sandown seems to work, though, as 19 of those 55 runners have gone on to win here (34.6%) and a further 18 have made the frame for an overall place strike rate of 67.3%. These figures are highly impressive, but some of the data is now quite old, so we should focus on more recent form.

His last 15 runners to Sandown (since May 2010) have yielded six winners (40%) and five other placers (place SR 73.3%), so he’s clearly a man to watch here. As is often the case for SotD, Sir Mark has just one runner at Sandown today: Clinical, who looks to have good E/W claims at the very least.

Clinical is proven at this level, having beaten Joviality to take the Princess Elizabeth stakes at Epsom in June: Joviality, of course, went on to win a Group 2 race at Ascot three weeks later. Our selection has a good record at races from 7f to 1m1f on a variety of surfaces/going, with 5 wins and a place from 10 outings, with a similar 50% strike rate at today’s trip. The Nassau was too tough a test for her, but this one should be more to her liking.

It’s not the easiest race to win and this is reflected in the prices available. You can take 17/2 BOG with BetVictor paying 1/5 odds for the first three home or 8/1 BOG at 1/4 odds for a place with Bet365. I’m playing it safe with Bet365 for the increased place payout, but you should always…

Click here for the latest odds for the 3.25 Sandown.