Stat of the Day, 10th September 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th September 2012

A very nice winner yesterday, as Mafeteng did the business at 15/2 for John Dunlop and SotD followers in style. She was two lengths too good for the second, and there were two and three quarter lengths back to the third by the lollipop. As the Racing Post said, she “fairly bolted up”. Which is nice. 🙂

We’ll head to the beautiful West country, and the top of a hill for the…

2.20 Bath

Richard Price is a frustrating trainer for me personally. He’s one of my ‘Winning Trainers’ but we can never seem to catch him right on that. For instance, yesterday he had a 14/1 second, which is no good to us as we back win only.

Anyway, that run showed his string remains in excellent fettle. In the last fourteen days, Price has had fifteen runners, with three winners for an eight point profit. Seven of the fifteen have made the frame.

His record at Bath is very good, with eight winners from 53 runners and a profit at level stakes of 30.25 points. All eight wins were with older horses, meaning his strike rate with such beasts is 19% for 40.25 points profit.

Today, Price runs You’ve Been Mowed, a 6yo mare, over a mile. She’s won seven times on turf in her career, and every single one of them has been when she’s made all, a tactic not always employed with her. So… we may know our fate early!

She has no problem with very fast ground, as she’ll encounter here; is running at her best trip of a mile; and, as a winner when front-running, unsurprisingly does better in smaller fields generally.

You’ve Been Mowed has the excellent Darren Edward Egan steering, and he claims five pounds which levels the playing field against no less than six three year olds, all of which are receiving five pounds weight for age allowance.

The one negative is that her record at Bath is not great: just one second place from six tries. To counter that concern, that best run was in identical circumstances to today: a mile, Class 5, firm ground, nine runners.

It’s Monday and regular readers will know my thoughts on Monday racing, but 10/1 BOG is available with Victor Chandler, and they’ll give you a free matched bet if you use the link below. I’m tempted to say win only, but each way is the prudent call if eight or more take their chance.

Click here for the latest odds on the 2.20 Bath.