Trainer Stats 11th Sept 2012

O’Brien’s Horses Are In Form

Andy Newton’s got plenty of hot yards to look out for, plus he looks at the form of the Gosden and O’Brien stables ahead of Saturday’s St Leger……

ROD MILLMAN (3 winners from his last 5 runners, 60% strike-rate): After not having a winner for a while the horses look to be in better fettle now with 3 of their last 5 going in – including a nice 33/1 winner at Kempton on Saturday. With 18 winners now they are still way off the 34 they notched up in 2011, but I’m sure they’ll be hoping to at least get near the 25 winner mark before the year ends. Son James is their main jockey – he’s been on 2 of their recent winners – with former World Cup winning jockey Mirco Demuro riding the other.
Upcoming entries and track stats: Doncaster (2 from 31, 6%), Kempton (16 from 140, 11%), Chepstow (8 from 95, 8%), Sandown (7 from 57, 12%), Ffos Las (6 from 47, 13%)

ED McMACHON (3 winners from his lat 6 runners, 50% strike-rate): With 14 winners this season they still need 11 to equal last year’s tally and 14 to make this their best-ever campaign. Yes, if their horses remain in the form they’ve been in over the past few weeks then they might go close, but it’s probably a bit of a tall order considering they’ve not really got enough ammo to go to war with. They’ve been doing very well with their 2 year-olds with 7 winners from 35 sent to post,  while make a note of anything they send to Chester and Bath later this week – they are both tracks they’ve historically done well at.
Upcoming entries and track stats: Carlisle (1 from 15, 7%), Doncaster (3 from 34, 9%), Chester (7 from 26, 27%), Bath (5 from 22, 23%)

RAE GUEST (4 winners from his last 8 runners, 50% strike-rate): Based in Newmarket this yard excel with their fillies and mares, while with 30 winners so far this term then this has already been their best-ever season. 27 was their previous best total, but this year the Guest team have really kicked on again and punters that followed their horses blindly would be a cool +£48 ahead. A massive 24 of their 30 successes have been with their 3 year-olds, so keep that in mind, and also keep an eye if jockey Chris Catlin gets the leg-up as his last 3 rides have yielded 2 winners. Tracks they’ve done well at in recent years are Bath, Musselburgh, Catterick, Lingfield (turf), Newcastle, Redcar, Warwick and Windsor.
Upcoming entries and track stats: Kempton (7 from 75, 9%), Chepstow (1 from 13, 8%), Epsom (0 from 7), Chester (0 from 3), Sandown (1 from 15, 7%), Wolverhampton (3 from 33, 9%), Newcastle (5 from 15, 33%), Ffos Las (1 from 8, 13%)

AMANDA PERRETT (4 winners from her last 12 runners, 33% strike-rate): With 19 winners so far they’ve already bettered last season, but 10 years ago they managed 60 successes in a season so it tells you how this yard have fallen down the ranks a bit. Jim Crowley and Pat Dobbs are the main men to look for in the saddle, while 12 of their 19 winners have been with their 3 year-olds this season. With just 1 juvenile winner from 19 then you might want to avoid their youngsters, but keep a lookout for anything they send to Ffos Las as they are currently 2 from 4 at the Welsh venue.
Upcoming entries and track stats: Kempton (25 from 171, 15%), Chepstow (0 from 2), Sandown (3 from 71, 4%), Chester (0 from 1), Doncaster (1 from 12, 8%), Bath (9 from 52, 17%)

SIR HENRY CECIL (3 winners from his last 9 runners, 33% strike-rate):  Chachamaidee was a promoted winner of the Group One Fusaichi Pegasus Matron Stakes at Leopardstown on Saturday, while their Chigun made it two weekend winners when running away with a decent handicap at Ascot. With 40 wins now for the season they are ticking along nicely as we gear up to Frankel’s swansong in just over a month’s time on Champions Day. Before that we’ve got the Leger Meeting this week and the Cecil camp have plenty entered up across the 4 days, most notably Thomas Chippendale – who will be trying to upset the hot favourite, Camelot, in the big one on Saturday. They are another yard that have excelled with their 3 year-olds this term, with 23 of their 40 successes coming with that age group, but they’ve had just the two juvenile winners from 16 runners. With a 24% strike-rate at Doncaster then it’ll be a shock if they can’t fire in at least one winner on Town Moor this week.
Upcoming entries and track stats: Doncaster (10 from 41, 24%), Sandown (10 from 61, 16%), Wolverhampton (9 from 40, 23%), Bath (1 from 7, 14%), Chester (6 from 24, 25%)

St Leger Trainer Stats

AIDAN O’BRIEN (11 winners from his last 42 runners, 26% strike-rate): A double at Galway on Monday was a good sign as the yard head towards one of their biggest weekends of the season. All eyes will be on Camelot as he bids to become the first horse since Nijinsky (1970) to land the English Triple Crown and really the yard’s horses could not be in much better form. Son Joseph and Seamie Heffernan seem to get the bulk of the rides these days, with Joseph set to write another exciting chapter in his young career this Saturday when he rides Camelot. So far they are on 67 Irish wins and 11 GB winners – with the bulk of their winners coming with their 2 and 3 year-olds. Looking at their Doncaster track stats they do best with their juveniles with 4 winners from their last 16, while surprisingly they are currently 0 from 14 with their 3 year-olds at the track – let’s hope that’s not a bad omen for Camelot on Saturday!
Upcoming entries and track stats: Doncaster (5 from 34, 15%), Down Royal (5 from 16, 31%), Curragh (108 from 674, 16%)

JOHN GOSDEN (2 winners from his last 24 runners, 8% strike-rate): Yes, the Gosden camp has won the last two runnings of the St Leger and in a normal year he’d probably be eyeing another win in the final Classic. However, Camelot will be a formidable horse to beat, especially as you could also argue that the Gosden horses are not in that good form. Just a couple of winners from their last 24 runners, plus Nathaniel getting turned over in last weekend’s Irish Champion Stakes further back up that the yard’s horses are not quite in the kind of form they were a few weeks ago.
Upcoming entries and track stats: Epsom (5 from 50, 10%), Chepstow (2 from 11, 18%), Doncaster (28 from 135, 21%), Chester (9 from 46, 20%), Sandown (28 from 168, 17%), Wolverhampton (23 from 108, 24%), Kempton (53 from 269, 20%), Curragh (4 from 7, 57%)

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