Stat of the Day, 12th September 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th September 2012

No joy yesterday, with Highlife Dancer never better than his finishing position of fifth. He was sent off 9/2 so we beat the market hands down. That’s a consolation I seek when they bet beaten, as it means we’re getting value. Value is what winners get.

Today, I’m taking a bit of a flyer on one, and we’ll know in a couple of hours (as the market settles) whether it’s value or not, in the…

2.50 Carlisle

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Kevin Ryan is the man at Carlisle, which is rare for a trainer who has so many runners. Indeed, in the last five years, Ryan is twelve from 65 at the track for an impressive 82.35 units profit.

He runs two at the course today, both juveniles. One is in an impossible looking nursery (Delores Rocket, 1.50) and she is passed over in favour of Al Thumama, who runs an hour later in the fillies’ maiden.

Al Thumama has had just one run so far, when fourth of five at Ayr. That was fast ground, and she was reported to look like she’d come on for the run.

As a daughter of Byron, a stallion whose progeny have done best at six to seven furlongs with a bit of give, conditions look optimal for her here.

She’s racing against a short-priced favourite who has already had seven attempts to get off the mark and been second or third on the last six of those. She could win, but taking 6/4 on horses like her is not generally a good idea.

Next in is Marsh Dragon, who is a long way from home (her trainer Mark Tompkins is based in Newmarket), and she was second on début. That was at Yarmouth when a 33/1 shot and I’d have a slight niggle about whether that run is repeatable. She’s respected after travelling so far.

With the next two in the early betting unraced fillies, this is a bit of a punt – as I’ve said – and it’s the trainer’s track form, allied to his current form (five wins, four places, from 21 runs in the last week and a profit of 53.25 to level stakes), which leads me to Al Thumama.

She is currently 8/1 BOG with bet365, and each way looks fair enough.

SotD Extra is (or will be) over on the forum at http://forum.geegeez.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=176

Click here for the latest odds on the 2.50 Carlisle.

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