Well I Declare: 13th September

Mal had another good day yesterday, pointing us in the direction of several decent bets and today he turns his attention to action at Doncaster, Chepstow, Epsom and Wolverhampton on…

…THURSDAY 13/9:

DONCASTER:

General stats: Johnny Murtagh was booked to ride Sentaril on the card, the jockey boasting 8/29 stats at Doncaster during the last five years.  Note all of Johnny’s rides this week.

Nursery event scheduled for 1.15: Eleven of the twelve winners have carried weights of 9-3, whilst two of the thirteen market leaders have prevailed thus far, with six of the other twelve market leaders claiming additional toteplacepot positions.  Aside from the winning 9/4 and 3/1 favourites, the other scorers were returned at 20/1, 20/1, 16/1, 12/1, 12/1, 12/1, 10/1, 13/2, 11/2 & 9/2.

‘Draw factor’ (six and a half furlongs)

1-4-5 (13 ran-good)

1-12-6-10 (18 ran-good)

7-6-3 (11 ran-good to firm)

16-2-14-8 (16 ran-soft)

3-9-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-8-9 (13 ran-heavy)

11-4-10 (14 ran-firm)

15-12-11-14 (22 ran-good)

5-6-14-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

19-1-14-3 (20 ran-good)

12-22-8-21 (22 ran-good to firm)

10-13-17-16 (17 ran-good to firm)

‘Sceptre Stakes’ scheduled for 1.50: Three-year-olds have won eleven of the last fourteen renewals, whilst four favourites have won this race in the last fifteen years.  Seven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot position in the process.

‘Draw factor’ (seven furlongs)

7-6-1 (11 ran-good)

10-7-9 (13 ran-good)

5-6-1 (10 ran-good to firm)

12-9-6 (12 ran-soft)

3-8-9 (15 ran-good to firm)

4-6-10 (9 ran-good)

7-2-13 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-16-19 (17 ran-good)

8-10-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

14-12-13 (13 ran-good)

13-7-3 (11 ran-good to firm)

9-5-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

5-4-11 (14 ran-good)

£300,000 added 2YO Stakes event scheduled for 2.20: Eight of the fourteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions which is a fair record in this competitive event (three winning favourites in the last eight years), especially as just three places are up for grabs in this cavalry charge.

‘Draw factor’ (six and a half furlongs)

13-4-19 (21 ran-good)

4-12-2 (21 ran-Good)

21-4-1 (19 ran-good to firm)

16-17-9 (21 ran-soft)

7-20-13 (22 ran-good to firm)

10-18-15 (22 ran-good to firm)

12-17-19 (22 ran-good)

5-15-13 (22 ran-good)

17-18-21 (21 ran-good)

22-20-17 (22 ran-good to firm)

4-10-3 (22 ran-good)

6-1-18 (21 ran-good to firm)

11-4-20 (22 ran-good)

‘Park Hill Stakes’ scheduled for 2.55: Three-year-olds have won nine of the last fifteen renewals, though four-year-olds come into this year’s contest on a hat trick.  Two clear market leaders have prevailed during the last fifteen years, alongside a co favourite of three.  Eleven of the seventeen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

One mile maiden juvenile event due to be contested at 3.30: Seven of the last fifteen market leaders have won, whilst a horse returned at 6/4 (second favourite) also obliged during the period.  Thirteen of the fifteen market leaders secured a toteplacepot position.

‘Draw factor’ (eight furlongs):

5-16-8 (15 ran-good)

13-11-15 (15 ran-good)

3-10-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

10-5-2 (12 ran-soft)

3-8-9 (11 ran-soft)

6-3-5 (11 ran-good to firm)

6-1-10 (10 ran-good to firm)

3-8-4 (11 ran-good)

7-17-9 (17 ran-good)

9-3-13 (13 ran-good)

12-3-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

2-1-9 (10 ran-good)

10-2-1 (12 ran-good to firm)

7-2-9 (16 ran-good)

7-3-1 (8 ran-good to firm)

Six furlong all aged handicap scheduled for 4.05: Two of the five favourites have finished in the frame (one winner).

‘Draw factor’ (six furlongs)

16-20-18-13 (21 ran-good)

4-21-8-13 (19 ran-good)

18-17-20-8 (20 ran-good to firm)

16-18-2-17 (21 ran-soft)

17-15-12-16 (20 ran-good to firm)

Class 2 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 4.35: Eight of the last nine winners carried weights of 9-1 or more, whilst the same number of gold medallists were returned at odds of 13/2 or less, statistics which include two successful market leaders.

 

CHEPSTOW:

General stats: Two favourites won on a seven race card last year with five gold medallists scoring in single figures.  The two exceptions were both returned at odds of 16/1. 

 

EPSOM:

General stats: Although only one favourite obliged on the six race card, the other five gold medallists were 9/1 or less.

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

General stats: Three of the seven winners were returned in double figures, albeit no extreme outsiders scored, the relevant gold medallists being returned at 12/1-12/1-10/1.  Thirty four horses were sent off at odds of 14/1 or more without succeeding.