Sat TV Trends: 15th Sept 2012

Who Will Land The Oldest Classic?

It’s Ladbrokes St Leger Day and we’ve got all the key trends and stats ahead of the LIVE C4 races this Saturday…..

Doncaster (C4/ATR)

2.25 –One Call Insurance Champagne Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 1) (2yo) CH4 7f

10/11 – Won by a Feb or March foal
10/11 – Won at 8/1 or shorter
9/11 – Had won 1 or 2 times before
9/11 – Won over 7f previously
8/11 – Came third or better in their last race
8/11 – Raced at Sandown, Newbury, York or the Curragh last time out
8/11 – Placed favourites
7/11 – Raced 3 or more times that season
6/11 – Won their last race
3/11 – Favourites that won
3/11 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/11 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/11 – Trained by Mark Johnston
0/11 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 11 runnings is 11/2

Note: 2005 renewal was a dead-heat

3.00 – Ladbrokes Portland (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) CH4 5f140y

10/10 – Won with 8-12 or more
9/10 – Won over 6f previously
8/10 – Raced 5 or more times that season
8/10 – Won 4 or more times
8/10 – Won at a double-figure price
8/10 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/10 – Winners from a double-figure stall
7/10 – Favourites unplaced
7/10 – Winner rated between 95 and 101
6/10 – Raced at Doncaster before
6/10 – Race in that season’s Great St Wilfrid (Ripon)
6/10 – Placed in their previous race
5/10 – Winners aged 5 years-old (inc last 5 years)
4/10 – Raced at Ripon last time out
3/10 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
3/10 – Won their previous race
2/10 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12.5/1

3.40 – Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) CH4 1m6f132y

10/10 – Placed in their last race
10/10 – Won 2 or 3 times previously
9/10 – Never run at Doncaster
9/10 – Raced 4 or 5 times that season
8/10 – Favourites placed
8/10 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
8/10 – Winning distance : 1 length+
8/10 – Won a Group race previously
7/10 – Won over at least 1m3f previously
6/10 – Won their last race
5/10 – Raced in the Great Voltigeur last time out (2 won)
4/10 – Favourites to win (1 joint)
3/10 – Ran in the Gordon Stakes last time out (2 won)
3/10 – Won by trainer John Gosden
3/10 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/10 – Ridden by William Buick
0/10 – Winners drawn in stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

4.15 – OLBG Park Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) CH4 7f

8/9 – Winning distance:  1 length or less
8/9 – Raced 3 or more runs that season
8/9 – Raced at either Goodwood (4), Newbury (2) or Newmarket (2) last time out
7/9 – Won over 7f previosuly
7/9 – Unplaced in their last race
7/9 – Won at 7/1 or shorter
7/9 – Winners aged 4 or older
7/9 – Won 3 or more times previously
7/9 – Favourites placed
6/9 – Had won a Group race before
6/9 – Horses from stall 1 placed
4/9 – Raced at Doncaster previously
2/9 – Favourites that won
2/9 – Ridden by Johnny Murtagh
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 6/1

Chester (C4/RUK)

2.10 –Free Bet At corbettsports.com Handicap (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-90) CH4 7f122y

Only 2 previous runnings
Mark Johnston won the race 12 months ago
Both winners returned at double-figures
Both winners aged 4 or older
Tim Easterby is only 2 from 39 with his older horses at the track
Mark Johnston has a +£40 level stakes profit with his older horses at the course
Pat Cosgrave has a 23% record riding 4+ year-olds at Chester
Tadhg O’Shea has a 29% record when riding older horses here

2.40 – Minstrell Recruitment Stand Cup (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) CH4 1m4f66y

6 previous runnings
6/6 – Didn’t win last time out
6/6 – Had 2 or more runs that season
6/6 – Had won at least twice before
5/6 – Aged 5 or younger
5/6 – Drawn in stall 3 or lower
5/6 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
4/6 – Ran at York last time out
3/6 – Had run at Chester before
2/6 – Winning favourites
Andrew Balding has a 22% record with  his 3 year-olds at Chester
Saeed Bin Suroor is just 1 from 20 with his 4+year-olds at the track

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