Stat of the Day, 18th September 2012

Stat of the Day 18/09

Stat of the Day, 18th September 2012

Majestic Breeze so nearly continued our winning run yesterday, but was collared late in the piece and we had to settle for the runner-up position. We, of course, did manage to beat the market though, as we took 11/2 about what was eventually an 11/4 favourite, so the value was there, if not the win!

Value is, of course, a subjective issue and has played a role in my selection today. Without making excuses before the event, today’s racing looks dire and there are few relevant (and strong enough!) stats to work off for today’s meetings. By far, the strongest statistical bet is Willie Wag Tail, who I fully expect to win the 5.00 at Yarmouth, but was 6/4 overnight and is currently 5/4 and will possibly go off at odds on and I’m not quite sure he’s worth a bet at those odds.

This meant that I’ve had quite a long and fairly fruitless search for a selection for today and it was almost our first “No Bet” day, but I think I’ve found a tentative E/W selection in the…

5.30 Yarmouth

None of the stats for Yarmouth are particularly strong, but a combination of factors has led me to an E/W selection here in this Class 4 handicap over a mile and three-quarters.

The trainer is James Eustace who has a decent 40% place strike rate in handicaps here at Yarmouth and his sole entrant today is our selection: Suzi’s A Class Act.

This horse is a course and distance winner and has shown remarkable consistency in recent times, her record in the last year reads 3332434113 and she’s 32311 over today’s trip. She ran well at Chester last time out, but probably didn’t get the full two miles that and a drop back 2 furlongs should surely help.

Our jockey today is young and talented Adam Beschizza: a friend of Geegeez and someone who also knows his way around the Yarmouth track, holding a 33% place strike rate in these handicap events and Adam himself is 113 on today’s mount.

As I said, none of the individual stats are probably strong enough to warrant an SotD selection, but when taken together, the 15/2 BOG generally on offer looks a decent E/W opportunity, so that’s the play for today, but you should…

Click here for the latest odds for the 5.30 Yarmouth.