Sat TV Trends: 22nd Sept 2012

Can Dr Marwan Koukash Land Another Gold Cup?

It’s Ayr Gold Cup Day, while there’s also decent cards at Newbury and Newmarket – We’ve got all the C4 TV races covered from a trends angle……

AYR (C4/RUK)

2.20 – William Hill Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) CH4 6f

9/10 – Aged 5 or younger
9/10 – Previous winners over 6f
9/10 – Carried 8-11 or more
8/10 – Finished 5^th or better last time out
8/10 – Had either 2 or 3 career wins to their name
8/10 – Winning distance 1 length or less
8/10 – Had raced at Ayr before (5 won)
7/10 – Had 5 or more runs that season
7/10 – The first 4 home all returned a double-figure price
7/10 – Unplaced favourites
7/10 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/10 – Carried 9-0 or more
3/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Winning Favourites
2/10 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/10 – Trained by David Nicholls
1/10 – Drawn in stall 8 to 20 (inc) – i.e winners were either drawn high or low
0/10 – Filly or mare winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 19/1

2.50 – Laundry Cottage Stud Firth of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) CH4 6f

9/10 – Finished 4^th or better last time out
9/10 – Had never raced at Ayr before
9/10 – Winning distance 1 length or further
8/10 – Had 3 or more runs that season
8/10 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
8/10 – Had won once or twice before
9/10 – Previous winners over 6f
7/10 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
7/10 – Placed favourites
5/10 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by Bryan Smart
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1

3.30 – William Hill Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) CH4 6f

10/10 – Returned at double-figure odds
9/10 – Didn’t win their last race
8/10 – Won over 6f previously
8/10 – Favourites unplaced
8/10 – Rated between 90-100
8/10 – Raced 7 or more times that season
8/10 – Recorded 3 or more career wins
8/10 – Race at either Doncaster (4), Goodwood (2) or Haydock (2) last time
7/10 – Won from a double-figure draw
7/10 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
7/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/10 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
6/10 – Came in the top 4 last time out
5/10 – Had run at Ayr previously
5/10 – The 1^st and 2nd came from a double-figure stall
4/10 – Trained by David Nicholls (won the race 6 times)
2/10 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
2/10 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
0/10 – Winning favourites (1 winning fav since 1980)
0/10 – Filly or mare winners
0/10 –  Placed horses from draw 1
Since 1980 only four winners aged 6 or older
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 17/1

NEWBURY (C4/RUK)

2.05 –Dubai Duty Free Arc Trial (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) CH4 1m3f5y

10/10 – Won over 1m2f previously
9/10 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/10 – Priced 9/1 or less
9/10 – Had 4 or more career wins
8/10 – Had won at Listed or better class previously
7/10 – Favourites placed
7/10 – Aged 5 or younger
6/10 – Raced 5 or more times that season
6/10 – Had won a Group race before
5/10 – Raced at Newbury before
4/10 – Won their last race
3/10 – Favourites that won
3/10 – Race at York last time
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

2.35 –Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (2yo) CH4 6f8y

9/10 – Raced 3 or more times
9/10 – Won from draw 5 or lower
8/10 – Won over 6f previously
8/10 – Foaled in March or later
8/10 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/10 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
7/10 – Won exactly two races before
7/10 – Favourites placed
6/10 – Won by an April foal
4/10 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
4/10 – Favourites to win
3/10 – Ran in the Gimcrack last time out (York)
3/10 – Won their previous race
2/10 – Trained by Richard Hannon
0/10 – Filly winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2

3.10 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) CH4 1m2f6y

10/10 – Won from stall 7 or higher
9/10 – Officially rated between 89 and 94
9/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
7/10 – Won over 1m2f previously
7/10 – Won at least twice previously
7/10 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
7/10 – Won by a 4 year-old
7/10 – Won from a double-figure draw
6/10 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
6/10 – Returned a double-figure price
6/10 – Raced 5 or more times that season
6/10 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd in their last race
4/10 – Had raced at Newbury before (2 won)
4/10 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/10 – Won their last race
1/10 – Winning favourites (joint)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 12/1

3.45 – Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) CH4 5f34y

10/10 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
10/10 – Raced four or more times that season
9/10 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/10 – Came in the top 3 in their last race
8/10 – Won a Listed or Group race before
8/10 – Aged 5 or younger
8/10 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
7/10 – Won over 5f previously
7/10 – Won 4 or more times
5/10 – Previous Group race winners
4/10 – Ran at the Curragh last time out (inc last two winners)
3/10 – Won their last race
3/10 – Mare winners
2/10 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1

NEWMARKET (C4/RUK)

3.55 – Betfred Cesarewitch Trial (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) CH4 2m2f

3 previous runnings
3/3 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
3/3 – Had 5 or more runs that season
3/3 – Carried 8-13 or less
3/3 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
2/3 – Had won 3 or more times before
2/3 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
2/3 – Ran at York last time out
2/3 – Finished third or better last time out
2/3 – Had won over 2m or further before
0/3 – Winning favourites

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