Stat of the Day, 21st September 2012

Stat of the Day 21/09

Stat of the Day, 21st September 2012

Other work commitments meant I’d already gone to press with yesterday’s SotD before the meeting at Ayr was abandoned and constraints of time often mean we don’t have time to fully research a second/reserve option. I’d rather have a “no bet” day than just throw something at you hastily!

As things stand, Ayr is raceable again today and David O’Meara’s excellent stats (see here) are still valid, giving Ingleby Angel (3/1 in the 5.10 race) an excellent chance, I’m not totally convinced that more heavy rain won’t fall and since his horse runs in the last race on the card, there is also the chance we’d have another non-runner on our hands.

So, with the inclement weather in mind, I’m taking no chances and we’re off to the West Midlands for an evening spin on the polytrack. The contest is a twelve-runner Class 4 Handicap over 7 furlongs (and 32 yards, if we’re being precise!) aka the…

7.00 Wolverhampton

The first name I always look for at Wolverhampton is Roger Varian. He’s had an explosive start to his training career and his best results seem to be here at Wolverhampton. He has had 18 runners at the Dunstall Park track, returning 7 winners ( 39% Strike rate) and a total of 12 of them have made the frame (66.7%). Backing each of Roger’s 18 runners here for £10 level stakes would have already made you a profit of some £167, a healthy 93% profit on your investments.

Roger has two runners this evening, Afraah runs at 8.30 and is sure to give a good account of himself, but the current odds of 2/1 leave little room for manoeuvre/error, whilst our selection runs some 90 minutes earlier in the 7.00 race, where we’re going with Emkanaat.

Emkanaat is a lightly raced 4yr old: just 10 starts to date, wining two of those and placing in five of them. This horse has only ran at Wolverhampton once before, scoring a fairly comfortable win over course and distance ahead of several horses who have run well since. Recent form since then has been decent enough off today’s current mark, making the first four home in all three races since that C&D win in July.

Based on his own record and that of the trainer, we’re happy enough to take this as an E/W possibility today. We know he won’t have things entirely his own way and he’ll have to dig a bit deep to get home , but this is reflected in his current price of 20/1 BOG with William Hill, but you can always…

Click here for the latest odds for the 7.00 Wolverhampton.