Well I Declare: 21st September

There’s plenty of racing to keep us occupied today and here’s a quick recap on the action planned for Ayr, Brighton, Lingfield, Newbury and Wolverhampton, as Mal Boyle previews…

…FRIDAY 21/09:

AYR:

General stats: Frankie Dettori (4/10) and Jim Crowley (3/5) are rare visitors to this part of the world and the two pilots have secured the thick end of an aggregate of fifty points of level stake profits.

 

BRIGHTON:

General stats: Roger Varian has saddled five horses at Brighton in total: 2YO stats: 1/2–3YO stats: 2/3.

 

LINGFIELD:

General stats: Rae Guest has enjoyed a purple patch of late and his Lingfield strike rate of 5/23 is backed up by an LSP figure of thirty-four points.

 

NEWBURY:

General stats: Ron Hodges (6/16), Ed McMahon (5/16) and Paul D’Arcy (4/15) are (respectfully)  ‘lesser’ trainers to consider, especially given their aggregate LSP figure of sixty points.

Six furlong juvenile event scheduled for 2.00: Fourteen of the last nineteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.

‘Draw factor’ (six furlongs)

7-11-6 (11 ran-good to soft)

6-7-10 (11 ran-good to soft)

1-3-2 (12 ran-good)

1-7-9 (12 ran-good)

9-12-3 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-13-5 (10 ran-good)

9-10-1 (11 ran-good)

6-7-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

5-10-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

10-16-6 (16 ran-good)

1-6-5 (12 ran-good to firm)

9-5-11 (10 ran-good)

16-1-3 (16 ran-good to firm)

7-3-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

20-8-3 (23 ran-good to firm)

13-17-20 (20 ran-good to firm)

10-15-6 (15 ran-good to firm)

Class 3 twelve furlong handicap scheduled for 2.30: Four renewals have slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded since the inaugural winner scored at 3/1 back in 2007.  Three-year-olds have secured three of the last four contests.

Nine furlong conditions event scheduled for 3.05: Five favourites have won since the turn of the Millennium, whilst eleven winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less.

Juvenile Class 2 conditions event scheduled for 3.40: Marcus Tregoning does not saddle a great number of juvenile winners in a season as a general rule, whereby it is significant that the trainer attempts to win this race for the fourth time in the last ten years via two newcomers which were still in evidence at the five-day stage.  Four favourites have won of late (last year‘s 4/7 market leader was beaten however), whilst ten of the last sixteen market leaders have finished in the frame.

‘Draw factor’ (eight furlongs)

3-4 (7 ran-good to soft)

7-5-8 (10 ran-good)

7-5 (6 ran -good to firm)

1-7 (6 ran-good)

1-10-2 (9 ran-good to firm)

4-6 (7 ran-good)

2-8-4 (11 ran-good to firm)

4-5 (5 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-good to firm)

4-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

8-6-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

3-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-8-7 (8 ran-good)

3-2 (6 ran-good)

Seven furlong conditions event due to be contested at 4.15: Eleven different trainers have won this event during in as any years, whilst eight of the thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last twelve years (five winners).

‘Draw factor’ (seven furlongs)

3-1 (7 ran-good to soft)

7-5-4 (8 ran–good)

6-2-3 (12 ran-good to firm)

9-11-3 (11 ran-good)

5-9-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

10-2-7 (13 ran-good)

6-3 (7 ran-good to firm)

5 (4 ran–good)

6-8-5 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

1-6-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-6-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-5 (7 ran-good)

Dubai Duty Free Cup (Listed event) schedule for 4.50: Five renewals have slipped by since the last successful favourite was recorded.  Saeed Bin Suroor has secured three of the last ten renewals with the trainer holding five options for the race at the time of writing.

Ten furlong Class 4 handicap scheduled for 5.20: Four-year-olds have secured eight of the last nine renewals.  Only two favourites have obliged during the last decade, with six gold medallists having been sent off at odds ranging between 14/1 & 25/1.

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

General stats: Ted Durcan has had an up and down season, having ridden the runner-up in the Epsom Derby, whilst still struggling for rides for former top employers.  Ted’s record at Wolverhampton includes a strike rate of 23%, which is backed up by twelve points of level stake profits.