Well I Declare: 26th September

Well, I Declare: 26th September

Well, I Declare: 26th September

It’s midweek already and here’s a quick recap on Mal Boyle’s stats for today’s action.



General stats: Michael J.M. Murphy is impressing in the saddle at every track he visits these days and his 60% strike rate at Goodwood (3/5) stands out from the crowd.  Michael backs up the stats with an impressive LSP figure of thirty-two points!

1.30: Epsom Derby and ’Arc’ winner Workforce made his winning debut in the inaugural running of this contest three years ago before the next gold medallist went on to lift Newmarket’s Group 2 ‘Tattersalls Millions’.  Last year’s scorer only went on to contest one more race when beaten whereby I am hoping that the race reverts to type by producing another interesting gold medallist.  All three favourites have finished in the frame, securing two gold and one bronze medal in the process.

2.00: Six of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners.

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2.35 & 3.10 (two divisions): The last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-6 or less, whilst the last seven contests have slipped by without a successful market leader being recorded.  The weight trends go against local raider Signed Up and Ghost Protocal (second division at 3.10) might struggle to win.  Seven of the eleven favourites have reached the frame to date (three winners).

3.40: Four-year-olds have won six of the last ten renewals (including four of the last five) of this Listed event.  Saeed Bin Suroor has secured five of the last eight renewals the trainer has offered Pisco Sour the green light on this occasion.  Seven of the last twelve favourites have prevailed, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last fourteen years was returned at just 10/1 (twelve months ago).

4.15: The six gold medallists have carried 8-11 or more in the toteplacepot finale which isolates two horses down at the bottom of the handicap.  Four-year-olds have won four of the six contests, whilst a 16/1 representative was beaten a head on one of the other occasions and another 16/1 raider finished third last year.  All six favourites have finished out with the washing thus far including a 10/11 market leader two years ago.

4.50: Three-year-olds have won five renewals during the last decade whilst favourites have secured four of the seven contests during which time, the biggest priced winner was a 10/1 chance.

5.25: Although the biggest priced winner via nine renewals was just a 9/1 chance, the only favourite to oblige scored twelve months ago.



General stats: Some punters swear that by following three-year-olds you can make a living out of the sport, the theory being that relevant horses have enough experience to know what to do, but not too much to start having their own ideas about the game.  The general stats suggest that there is something to be said for the ’system’ though perhaps not at Redcar, where following three-year-old favourites would have cost you over twenty-eight points of level stake losses during the last five years.  



General stats: Aside from my weekly report singing the praises of Saeed Bin Suroor’s raiders at Kempton, I can also offer positive vibes about James Fanshawe’s runners at the Sunbury circuit, given his 21% strike rate in recent times, a ratio which has produced forty-two points of level stake profits.  Ralph Beckett has fared event better via the same S/R by boasting an LSP figure of sixty-two points.



General stats: Tartan Tiger (scheduled to contest the 5.05 contest) is an interesting runner from John Quinn’s yard as John has won with the only horse he has saddled at the racecourse in recent years.  John’s stable is also in form at the time of writing for good measure.

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