Well I Declare: 27th September

Well, I Declare: 27th September

Some decent racing in prospect today, weather permitting and here are Mal Boyle’s thoughts for the day’s proceedings.

THURSDAY 27/09:

NEWMARKET:

General stats: Mahmood Al Zarooni saddled more winners than another trainer during the corresponding week last year (reminder for you) and his 27% strike rate (backed up by an LSP figure of eighty-one points) offers further encouragement if you fancy his horses over the next three days.  Andrew Balding’s level stake profit of over one hundred points stands out from the crowd. 

PONTEFRACT:

General stats: Henry Candy’s 6/19 ratio takes some beating at Pontefract Park. If you target Henry’s older horses (aged four of more), the statistics improve to 5/12. 

Juvenile maiden event over six furlongs scheduled for 2.20: Ten of the last eleven winners were returned at odds of 7/1 or less, stats which include six successful market leaders. Seven of the twelve favourites during the study period have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include seven successful market leaders.

‘Draw factor’ (five furlongs)

9-2-5 (10 ran-good to firm)
12-1-2 (12 ran-good to firm)
6-4 (6 ran-good to firm)
11-3-9 (14 ran-good to firm)
4-12-10 (12 ran-good to firm)
2-8-13 (16 ran-good to firm)
3-4-9 (11-good to firm)
9-11-7 (11-good to firm)
9-5-6 (10 ran-good)
10-4-5 (10 ran-firm)
7-1-8 (11 ran-good to firm)
10-12-4 (11 ran-firm)
9-5-11 (10 ran-soft)
11-6-2 (10 ran-soft)
10-7-2 (14 ran-good to soft)
13-14-4 (15 ran-good to soft)

One mile Nursery event for fillies scheduled for 2.55: Eight of the last ten winners have all carried weights of 8-10 or more, whilst just two of the last thirteen favourites have prevailed. Six of the fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

‘Draw factor’ (eight furlongs)

2-6-3 (9 ran-good to firm)
3-6 (6 ran-good to firm)
5-1 (6 ran-good to firm)
7-8-1 (8 ran-good to firm)
8-7-2 (10 ran-good to firm)
9-12-5 (11 ran-good to firm)
4-1-11 (12 ran-good)
8-3-10 (11 ran-firm)
2-11-10 (14 ran-good to firm)
3-5 (6 ran-firm)
6-14-8-10 (17 ran-soft)
1-6-9 (13 ran-good to soft)
5-2-4-12 (16 ran-good)
4-6 (7 ran-good to firm)
3-11-4 (11 ran-good to firm)

Five furlong all aged handicap due to be contested at 3.30: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last eleven renewals whereby I included last year’s 16/1 winner Dancing Freddy in my short listed trio.  Three favourites have won since 1998, and though only eight of the sixteen market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, the record would have been half decent but for all three 9/1 co favourites having finished out with the washing back in 2002.

‘Draw factor’ (five furlongs):

2-3-1 (12 ran-good to firm)
8-4-1 (10 ran-good to firm)
11-4-2 (12 ran-good to firm)
5-4-2 (13 ran-good to firm)
15-14-8-9 (16 ran-good to firm)
5-14-4 (15 ran-good to firm)
2-4-17 (15 ran-good)
4-2-3-6 (16 ran-firm)
18-15-5-17 (16 ran-good to firm)
1-3-7-14 (17 ran-firm)
13-15-16 (15 ran-soft)
16-6-14-17 (16 ran-good to soft)
14-10-16-15 (18 ran-good)
5-2-7-3 (18 ran-good to firm)
15-4-17-12 (17 ran-good to firm)

Class 2 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 4.05: Mark Johnston comes into the race on a hat trick and his 2010 winner Licence To Till was one of two five-day declarations in place earlier in the week.  Four clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the last fifteen years, whilst eleven of the seventeen jollies have finished in the frame in the process.

One mile juvenile maiden scheduled for 4.40: Eight of the last eleven renewals have gone the way of southern raiders.  Seven favourites have won during the study period, whilst twelve of the recent scorers were returned at odds of 4/1 or less.  Thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via fifteen representatives.

‘Draw factor’ (eight furlongs)

6-8-2 (8 ran-good to firm)
3-1 (6 ran-good to firm)
2-6 (6 ran-good to firm)
5-8-4 (8 ran-good to firm)
7-2-9 (10 ran-good to firm)
10-5-7 (11 ran-good to firm)
11-2-8 (11 ran-good)
1-9-2 (8 ran-firm)
4-5-6 (9 ran-good to firm)
2 (4 ran-firm)
4 (4 ran-soft)
2-6-13 (12 ran-good to soft)
8-10-4 (15 ran-good)
2-5-9 (9 ran-good to firm)
6-9-12 (13 ran-good to firm)

WOLVERHAMPTON:

General stats: Dunstall Park stages more all-weather racing than any other venue year in, year out, whereby getting a handle on the stats is difficult.  Newmarket trainers such as Jeremy Noseda, Saeed Bin Suroor and (to a fashion) Tobias Coles saddle more than their fair of winners. 

PERTH:

General stats: Michael Byrne has ridden three winners via just four assignments at Perth to date.