Stat of the Day, 29th September 2012
No joy for us yesterday, as our 8/1 advised shot Dazzling Valentine was sent off as low as 11/2 (good result for the traders amongst you), but didn’t manage to make the frame. She ran well in the early/mid stages of the race and led for much of it, she was eventually overhauled 3 furlongs from home and was weakening when jockey Natasha Eaton eased her down and just brought her home in 9th position.
As expected, Natasha did ride her obligatory Haydock winner in the previous race on Chosen Character and judging from the emails I’ve received, I know several of you backed that one too! Natasha, surprisingly has no ride at Haydock today, although she does ride Bubbly Ballerina for Alan Bailey in the 7.50 at Wolverhampton tonight, where she has a reasonable E/W chance at around 13/2.
However, SotD itself isn’t travelling that far from Haydock today: just a quick 30 or so miles South East to Britain’s oldest racecourse, the Roodee. Our contest today is the last on the card, a Class 4 Handicap over 6 furlongs on heavy ground. As of 10.15am there were no reported non-runners, so we expect the full complement of 12 runners to contest the…
Chester is a quirky track and some horses “get” it and some don’t. This allied to the fact that the ground will be heavy this afternoon sends us looking for a horse well suited to these conditions rather than a trainer with a generic record.
And I think I’ve found us a decent E/W shot for this tea-time finale, hopefully it will be the lucky last for us today. I’m going with Green Park today, who has gone well here at Chester on many occasions in the past, where he has made the frame on nine of his thirteen outings here, winning three of those for a level stakes profit of 10pts. Two of those three wins were over today’s distance too.
He has also got some decent form on heavy ground, winning 3 times from 10 outings for a profit of 17.5pts. He arrives here in decent nick, having finished 6th in last Saturday’s Ayr Bronze Cup over today’s trip and similarly cloying ground.
The booking of Joe Fanning looks an interesting one and that might just be the edge we need today in what looks a competitive affair. This is represented in the market with a cluster of 5 or 6 horses all within a couple of points in the betting.
As things stand, the best prices on offer for our selection are 9/1 BOG (BetVictor, BoyleSports & Ladbrokes) and so its 0.5pts E/W on Green Park at 9/1 BOG for SotD today, but as always I suggest that you…
Click here for all the latest odds for the 5.45 Chester.