Well I Declare: 29th September

Well, I Declare: 29th September

A quick reminder of Mal Boyle’s thoughts on today’s racing…

SATURDAY 29/09:

CHESTER:

General stats: The 32% strike rate via ten winners of William Haggas takes some beating here on the Roodee, though Sir Mark Prescott and Marco Botti boast similar good records.

HAYDOCK:

General stats: Roger Varian (12/38) boasts level stake profits of thirty points at Haydock during his brief training career thus far. 

NEWMARKET:

General stats: Richard Hannon’s 13% strike rate is one of his weakest in the land but that said, fifty-five points of level stake profits more than makes up for the negative scenario.

‘Royal Lodge’ event scheduled for 1.55: Aidan O’Brien has won this race five times in the last thirteen years and the trainer held four entries for the Group 2 contest earlier in the week.

Four favourites have won during the last fifteen years, whilst eight of the nineteen market leaders reached the frame.

Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes scheduled for 2.25: Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the study period, whilst nine of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

One mile Group 1 event scheduled for 3.00: Three-year-olds have won eight of the last twelve renewals of the ‘Sun Chariot’, whilst three of the last eleven favourites have secured this valuable prize.  Seven market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Cambridgeshire Handicap scheduled for 3.40: The last nine winners of the ‘Cambridgeshire’ have carried a maximum burden of 9-3, whilst three favourites have won the race in the last fifteen years which is a respectable record given the competitive nature of this event.  Seven of the twenty market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.  Five of the first seven horses home last year were drawn twenty or higher, though this week’s erratic weather makes the forecasting of ‘superior’ stall positions difficult in the extreme.

Seven furlong Nursery contest scheduled for 4.15: Nine of the last twelve winners of this nursery event have carried weights of 9-0 or less, whilst four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last fifteen years.  Ten of the nineteen jollies have snared toteplacepot positions.

Class 2 all aged seven furlong handicap scheduled for 4.50: Three-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals, albeit four-year-olds had previously held the call during the last decade or so.  Richard Hannon held three entries earlier in the week in a race in which Richard has saddled two of the last four winners.  Favourites have a moderate record in the potential toteplacepot finale, because although four of the last sixteen market leaders have won, only two of the other fourteen market leaders has finished in the frame.

RIPON:

General stats: Peter Salmon’s 50% strike rate (3/6) comes with a backing of twenty-eight points of level stake profits.

WOLVERHAMPTON:

General stats: Gerard Butler’s ratios have diminished in recent years, though his 24% strike rate and fifty points LSP reading at Dunstall Park still catches the eye.  Simon Dow’s record of 5/11 strike rate stands out from the crowd.

MARKET RASEN:

General stats: Nicky Henderson stats at Market Rasen during the last five years: Hurdles: 9/20–Chases: 3/9–Bumpers: 4/8.  The statistics produce an aggregate level stake profit of fifteen points.