Stat of the Day, 30th September 2012

Stat of the Day 30/09

Stat of the Day, 30th September 2012

Well, we almost had another good priced winner yesterday, as Green Park came us a tremendous run for our money. We advised an E/W bet at 9/1 and our selection was eventually sent off as low as 11/2. He had a poor draw to contend with, drawn widest of all and I felt that Joe Fanning gave him an excellent ride holding him up before delivering his challenge over the final third of the race.

Our mount just about hit the front in the final furlong, but it was only a brief moment as the eventual winner All or Nothin had enough in hand to land a victory by half a length. The virtue of taking an E/W bet at the early price meant we made a small profit of 0.4pts on the day and it all counts!

We’ve had a great September in fact and it’s be really nice to end the month with a winner, so we’re off to the Surrey Downs for a Class 3 Handicap over 10 furlongs and ten runners have been declared to do battle over ground expected to be Good to Soft in the…

3.55 Epsom

Like yesterday’s track (Chester), Epsom is also a quirky one which many horses struggle to come to terms with. This cannot be said for today’s SotD selection: Resurge. This horse has a good record on the Downs with 3 wins and 2 2nd place finishes from just 8 outings here.

Resurge is a 3-time C&D winner and he won at Chester in May on heavy going, so he won’t mind some cut in the ground today. He ran well when tongue-tied for the first time in a good Doncaster handicap last time out (17 days ago), where he finished a good second to Black Spirit who has since gone on to win a Group 3 race.

That Doncaster run was a Class 2 race and he’s dropping back to Class 3 today, the tongue tie is retained and he is set to be a big player running off the same 93 mark. His last victory here at Epsom incidentally was off a mark of 97.

Resurge is trained by Stuart Kittow who has enjoyed some success here at Epsom, other than with today’s horse and his record over the past couple of years here is 6 wins and 3 further places from 18 races: a 33.33% strike rate generating a level stakes profit of 17pts as well as a 50% place strike rate. And one further factor in our favour is the fact that Adam Kirby is back on board today, Adam was the jockey when Resurge won at Chester, he was also riding Black Spirit in Resurge’s recent defeat!

I think our selection really is the one to beat today and running from stall 3, we can’t have too many complaints about the draw. It was very early for the market to have fully formed when I wrote this piece, but I was more than happy to see 7/2 on offer from Bet365 (consistently good early prices from these), BetVictor, Paddy Power and William Hills, all BOG of course!

So it’s a straight win bet today at 7/2 BOG: take your pick of bookies for this one or…

Click here for all the latest odds for the 3.55 Epsom.