Stat of the Day, 1st October 2012
Yesterday saw us finish as runner-up for the second successive day, as Resurge just didn’t quite have enough to get home. You can’t win them all, but September was still a good month as we did win our fair share (37%) on our way to a 25pts profit for the month.
But that was last month! And we start October with a clean slate and it’s a typically poor Monday to kick off with.
But there’s no excuses to be made, every race will have a winner and we’re going to try a find a result at Britain’s highest (780 ft above sea level) flat racecourse. The event is a open-looking 15-runner, 10-furlong, Class 5 Handicap on Good ground.
The number of runners and the openness of the race should give us a reasonable price for a speculative E/W punt in the…
There’s no one single standout stat to support any of the runners in this contest, if I’m honest, but there’s enough information when combined together to give us a decent chance of making a profit from the race.
Trainer David Bridgwater doesn’t run many horses at Bath: just 4 in the last two years. Yet he’s tasted success on two of those occasions, it is admittedly a small sample size, but a 50% record is pretty good and he has just the one runner at the track today in the form of Edgeworth.
Edgeworth was a 7/1 course and distance winner on his last visit to this track back in June and has finished third in two of his three other outings at Bath, so he clearly goes well here. Today’s trip of 10 furlongs is probably his best distance too: 6 wins from 24 for 15.pts level stakes profits and a further 6 placed finishes for a place strike rate of 50% at this trip.
The C&D victory came when ridden by talented apprentice George Downing and George takes the reins again today, This jockey is no slouch around Bath either where he’s won 4 of 7 contests for a profit of 22pts.
One last pointer I’d like to refer to is the fact that Edgeworth was sired by Pyrus whose progeny are 4/12 at the course.
As I intimated earlier, this isn’t the strongest SotD selection we’ve had recently, but this is reflected in the prices available and we’ll be taking an E/W punt at this one today. So it’s a 0.5pts E/W bet today at 14/1 BOG courtesy of Bet365, BoyleSports or BetVictor (take your pick!) or you could wait and then…
Click here for all the latest odds for the 3.20 Bath.