Stat of the Day, 3rd October 2012

Stat of the Day 03/10

Stat of the Day, 3rd October 2012

No joy for us yesterday, as Cantal just didn’t have enough in reserve to make the frame. She ran well enough and seemed to have every chance with a furlong to run, but there was nothing extra in hand as the three market leaders filled the prize spots.

We’re going to stay on the all-weather today with indifferent weather expected, but we’re heading back down South for a spin on the Polytrack at Sunbury on Thames for an interesting-looking 10-runner (two horses have already pulled out from the original 12) Class 4 handicap over a mile and a half, better known as the…

8.10 Kempton

It’s a wee bit of a stat fest today, as I seem to have got a little carried away, but I think it’s all relevant…

Trainer James Fanshawe is invariably the man to beat at Kempton, which means his name is regularly featured here on SotD and he has been good for us in the past! His record in Kempton handicaps is excellent with 16 winners from 62 races over the last two years alone.

These 16 winners have brought in a level stakes profit of 47pts (76% POI) at a strike rate of 26%, which is fantastic when you consider how often he is sending runners to this track. His consistency is further illustrated by the fact that 55% of his handicappers get placed here.

We can further break down Mr Fanshawe’s figures to see how he fares in races similar to todays contest and we can see that in the past three years, his record in Kempton handicaps over 1mile 4 furlongs  is 6 winners and 5 other places from just 18 runs: a win strike rate of 33.33% with 61.11% placed in total: the winners have generated 32.4pts profit = 180% on stakes. And if we dig further down into these 18 races, we find that 10 of them have been Class 4 contests where the results read 1331225114 with those 4 winners generating 31.5pts profit.

So, we’re very interested to see that James has just one runner at Kempton this evening and that the race is indeed a Class 4 handicap. James is represented tonight by Spensley, who has a good record himself here having won 4 times at this track. When he ran here last month the race was not run to suit him,  but he did enough to suggest that he’s still in decent nick, the official line was progress 2f out, stayed on well final furlong.

That was in a Class 3 race and today he drops down to a Class 4 race which is also far less competitive. Add to that the fact he’s been dropped 3lb in the handicap which takes his mark down to 85 which is 1lb less than his last winning mark means he’s in with a good shout today, providing there’s some reasonable early pace.

The overnight tissue was a very attractive-looking 10/1, which would have been a solid E/W bet for me, but the actual best price that has been available so far is the 11/2 BOG (of course!) on offer from William Hill, so it’s time to be bold and grasp the nettle and go for the 1pt win bet at that price, but I suggest that you…

Click here for all the latest odds for the 8.10 Kempton.