Well I Declare: 3rd October

Well, I Declare: 3rd October

We’ve racing from Kempton, Newcastle, Nottingham and Salisbury today and here’s just a quick reminder of Mal Boyle’s thoughts on the action planned for…

…WEDNESDAY 03/10:

Kempton:

General stats: Eight of Saeed Bin Suroor’s last nine runners at Kempton have been beaten but at a track where the trainer excels (32% strike rate), watch out for the trainer to ’bite back’ very soon.

7.40: Who says trainers are not creatures of habit?  Richard Hannon saddled three runners in the inaugural running of this Nursery event last year and the trainer follows suit this time around.  For the record, Richard’s horses finished 1st (3/1), 3^rd (12/1) and 4^th (20/1) twelve months ago.

8.10: All seven winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones whilst two favourites have prevailed thus far.  Only three of the seven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

8.40: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick (the other two market leaders failed to secure toteplacepot positions) whilst Richard Hannon (Ninjago) has won two of the four renewals to date.

9.10: We still await the first favourite to finish in the fame behind winners sent off at 14/1-8/1-15/2.

Newcastle:

General stats: William Haggas and Noel Quinlan each boast a 40% strike rate at Gosforth Park, albeit William’s record relates to ten winners during the last five years as opposed to Noel’s brace of gold medallists.

3.45 & 4.20 (two divisions): All four winners carried weights of 8-12 or more, whilst three of the four favourites have won at 5/1-4/1-3/1.

5.20: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last twelve renewals, whilst three favourites have prevailed via the last eight contests, statistics which has produced a level profit strike rate of 7.5 points during the period.

Nottingham:

General stats: Lucy Wadham is a rare visitor to Nottingham, though two of her four runners in recent times have prevailed.  Lucy’s strike rate with juveniles (23% during the last five years) is fair enough considering she has few two-year-olds in her care and newcomer Nullarbor Sky is Lucy’s representative on the card in the 4.30 event.

3.55 & 4.30 (two divisions): John Dunlop won both divisions of the 2010 event but was not represented last year.  John’s only potential runner in the race last weekend was Alnawiyah and sure enough, John has offered his inmate the green light. Just two favourites have prevailed via the last eleven renewals.

5.00: Favourites have won six of the last ten contests.

Salisbury:

General stats: Switched Off is Ed McMahon’s only runner on the card and with the trainer boasting a 23% strike rate at the track, the seven-year-old could score for the yard.  Four of Ed’s last six runners had finished ‘in the three’ at the time of writing, statistics which include a 5/1 winner.

1.30 & 2.00 (two divisions): Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won via the last eighteen renewals, whilst fifteen of the eighteen jollies have secured toteplacepot positions.

2.30: Richard Hannon has won the race five times in the last fifteen years and the trainer is represented this time around by Baltic Knight.  Eight favourites have scored during the last decade with the market leader coming into this year’s event on a six timer.

3.00: Three-year-olds have won four of the six renewals to date and with eight of the ten contenders representing the junior vintage, the ratio should improve further still.

3.35: Favourites of one description or another have won five of the last six contests.

4.10: Five of the last nine gold medallists have scored at 33/1–20/1–20/1–20/1–14/1 whilst seven of the last ten market leaders have failed to trouble the judge.  Horses carrying 9-3 or less have secured twelve of the last thirteen contests.

5.10: The last seven winners have carried 9-3 or more.