Stat of the Day, 4th October 2012

Stat of the Day 04/10

Stat of the Day, 4th October 2012

Another case of close, but no cigar yesterday. Whether Spensley’s run for the line was timed slightly too late or whether he just didn’t have enough pick-up speed when it matters is debatable, of course. Perhaps it was a combination of the two? As it happens, we were beaten by less than length, finishing strongly to take 3rd place at 5/1, just a half point less than the advised bet.

I know some of you back all these for a place and those doing so will have made a small profit at 2.2 for the place, but for SotD records it’s another loss in what is proving to be a frustrating start to a notoriously difficult month.

We’re going to give the All-Weather racing another try today, but this time it’s the Nottinghamshire fibresand which will play host to us, as we seek to get off the cold list via a tight-looking, 13-runner, 1 mile handicap (nobody said it was easy!) aka the…

5.30 Southwell

With some tracks being far busier than others, particularly the A/W courses, certain names will reappear in SotD at fairly regular intervals. We make no apologies for revisiting certain trainers, providing their results are still holding up. So, today’s trainer in focus is another one fairly well known to Geegeez, just as James Fanshawe was yesterday.

Since he sent his first runner out onto the Southwell fibresand on the 22nd December last year, James Tate has been the man in form at this track. Dark Falcon was a 3/1 winner that day and Mr Tate hasn’t really had many problems here since.

Including that first race, James has sent just 9 runners to the track, but he seems to be taking a very selective approach and picking the right horses to run here, for those 9 runners have returned the following results: 127118171 : a 55.6% strike rate and a 66.7% place strike rate. Backing each of these runners at £10 level stakes would have made you £108.33 profit at SP (120% of stakes) and £133.09 at Betfair SP (+148%)

Two of those nine races were contested by James’ sole runner today: Saaboog.

Saaboog is a course and distance winner, so we know she gets the surface and the trip. Despite finishing just 7th on her last outing here, she was far from disgraced as five of the horses in front of her that day have gone on to win more races and all six of them have placed on more than one occasion since, most notably the likes of  Henry Allingham & Position amongst others.

She looks to have a decent enough chance back on the fibresand here today and I’d expect her to at least make the frame and given that Bet365, Betfred and Stan James  are all offering an attractive-looking 8/1 BOG, I’m playing it as a 0.5pt E/W bet (1/4 odds for a place), but I suggest that you…

Click here for all the latest odds for the 5.30 Southwell.