Well I Declare: 6th October

Well I Declare: 6th October

Well I Declare: 6th October

Another busy day of racing and one that looks tough to find winners. Fortunately we’ve got the benefit of mal Boyle’s expert insight on the action from Ascot, Fontwell, Newmarket, Redcar and Wolverhampton on…

…SATURDAY 06/10:


General stats: Favourites in three-year-old events at Ascot have a good record in general terms.  Handicap market leaders have one of the best strike rates (31%) in the country, results which have yielded over eighteen points of level stake profits.  Non handicap race market leaders boast a S/R of 38% which has also produced a small LSP figure during the last five years.

‘Cornwallis’ event scheduled for 2.00: Favourites have won two of the last eleven renewals, whilst the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at 20/1 last year.

‘Cumberland Lodge’ scheduled for 2.30: Four-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals, whilst vintage representatives have claimed six of the last seven available toteplacepot positions.  Favourites have secured seven of the last twelve contests.

Six furlong Group 3 event scheduled for 3.05: All four winners have carried 9-1 to victory whilst we await the first successful market leader, the gold medallists having been returned at 16/1–16/1–11/1–6/1 thus far.

Listed ‘October Stakes’ scheduled for 4.45: Favourites have won five of the last nine renewals, the biggest priced winner during the period being last year‘s 16/1 gold medallist.

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General stats: David Pipe saddled an 11/1 double on the card last year though those were David’s only winners on the Saturday fixture (of the two days) during the last five years. That said, no trainer has saddled three winners during the study period! 39 favourites: 13 winners (24.0%)–10 placed–16 unplaced. Stats include three odds on favourites: 1 winner (33.3%)–2 unplaced.  The average winning price (35 winners): 4/1. 25 winners sent off in single figures (9/1 or less): 71.4%–10 winners in double figures: 28.6%

Two and a half novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.20: Six-year-olds have won five of the seven renewals to date, whilst last year’s 6/4 favourite was the first market leader to prevail.



General stats: ‘Champion Elect’ Richard Hughes rode a 90/1 four timer on last year’s corresponding card via three different trainers.

‘Tattersalls Millions’ event scheduled for 2.15: Although no obvious trends have emerged via four renewals, I thought you might want to take note of the trainer with most entries (Mark Johnston–4) at the penultimate stage. Last year’s winning trainer Mick Channon held two declarations which looked likely types leading up to the contest, namely Ollie Olga and Graphic Guest.



General stats: Brian Meehan’s 4/11 stats at Redcar are worth noting, especially given his five potential runners at the track on Saturday. 

‘Straight Mile Championship Final’ scheduled for 2.40: The last six winners have carried weights of 9-1 or more.  Six of the last nine winners were returned at double figure prices, whilst Kiwi Bay has won the last two renewals of the contest for trainer Michael Dods who also had Hakuna Matata entered up at the time of writing.

Listed ‘Guisborough Stakes’ scheduled for 3.10: Saeed Bin Suroor has saddled three winners in the last eight years and the trainer held three options earlier in the week.

Class 5 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 4.15: Six of the last seven winners have been returned in double figures (28/1 winner twelve months ago), whilst the last ten gold medallists were burned with a minimum weight of 8-12

Five furlong mixed vintage handicap scheduled for 5.25: Four-year-olds have won four of the seven contests to date, whilst market leaders have won five renewals, boasting a level stake profit of twelve and a half points into the bargain.



General stats: The majority of late night revellers probably enjoyed a great night out twelve months ago with the biggest priced winner emerging at just 9/1 via an eight race card, results which included four successful favourites.  Six of the eight winners were sent off at 7/2 or less.

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