Well I Declare: 13th October

Well, I Declare! 13th October

It’s the busiest day of the week with racing at Chepstow, Hexham, Newmarket and York and it’s not the easiest of days to find any winners.
Thankfully Mal Boyle has prepared some notes to guide us through..

…SATURDAY 13/10:

Chepstow:

General stats: Colin Tizzard secured a 9/2 double on last year’s card.

Juvenile hurdle scheduled for 1.55: Paul Nicholls (potentially represented by Sametegal and Far West on this occasion) has saddled three of the last seven winners.  Alan King (only option at the time of writing was Secret Edge) has won the race twice in the last six years by two of his best juvenile hurdlers during the period, namely Katchit and Franchoek.  Alan’s only possible runner was Handazen earlier in the week.

Class 2 handicap hurdle due to be contested at 3.40: Hinterland was the only runner entered by Paul Nicholls at the five-day stage, the trainer having saddled four winners of this event during the last decade.  Six renewals had slipped by without a successful market leader being returned before last year’s 13/8 market leader obliged.

Class 3 handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.10: The last nine winners have carried weights of 11-3 or less whilst six contests have slipped by without a winning favourite being recorded.  Evan Williams and Philip Hobbs have both won two renewals during the last five years.

Three mile Class 2 handicap chase scheduled for 4.45: The last eight winners have carried 10-10 or less to victory, during which time six eight-year-olds have gained the spoils.

Bumper event scheduled for 5.20: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals during which time, both Paul Nicholls and Philip Hobbs have saddled two winners.

Hexham:

General stats: John Quinn’s ratio is 7/19 at Hexham, whilst Sue Smith saddled a 13/2 double at the corresponding fixture twelve months ago. 

Class 4 novice hurdle event for mares scheduled for 2.45: Four of the last five winners have scored at odds of 85/40 or less, stats which include two successful market leaders.  Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests.

Class 4 handicap chase over two and a half miles due to be contested at 3.20: Six-year-olds have won three of the last four contests, whilst five renewals have slipped past with a successful market leader being recorded.

Maiden hurdle scheduled for 4.30: Five of the six winners to date scored at 4/1 or less, statistics which include three successful favourites.  The other winner was returned at 66/1!

Bumper event scheduled for 5.35: Last year’s winning 85/40 favourite was the first market leader to score in the seven-year history of the scheduled finale.

Newmarket:

General stats: It does not seem possible four years has passed since Nicky Henderson last won the Cesarewitch, three of the trainer’s last seven runners having won here on the Rowley Mile.  Nicky’s only entry earlier in the week was Sentry Duty who has finished sixth in this event in each of the last two years.  Kieren Fallon was booked to ride some time ago. 

Group 2 Challenge Stakes scheduled for 1.50: Three-year-olds have won four of the last five contests.

Group 1 ‘Middle Park’ scheduled for 2.20: Aidan O’Brien was responsible for four of the twelve five-day declarations, with the trainer having saddled two of the last eight winners of this event.  Aidan won this race with a 25/1 chance last year en route to securing a 93/1 double on the card.

Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes scheduled for 2.55: Three favourites have won during the last six years, during which time Jim Bolger (Dawn Approach and Leitir Mor are Jim‘s potential runners this time around) has claimed four victories.  Aidan O’Brien made seven of the fifteen declarations earlier in the week.

‘Cesarewitch’ scheduled for 3.35: Eight of the last ten winners were sent off at a maximum price of 16/1 which suggests that this marathon event is not as much of a lottery as most believe it to be.  Two successful favourites (both returned at 9/2) were recorded during the study period.  Five of the last six winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-1.

Group 2 ‘Rockfel’ scheduled for 4.05: To put the favourite stats of the ’Cesarewitch’ in perspective with its average of thirty odd runners, only the same number of market leaders have won this two-year-old event during the same period.   Aidan O’Brien held two options earlier in the week in a race that Aidan has won twice in the last five years.

Group 3 Autumn Stakes scheduled for 4.40: Favourites have won four of the last eight renewals, though the other contests were won by horses returned at 33/1-20/1-9/1-8/1.  Montiridge was Richard Hannon’s only potential runner on Monday, the trainer having saddled two of the last nine winners.

Group 3 Darley Stakes scheduled for 5.15: Only one clear favourite has obliged during the last decade, with two of the last four winners having been sent off at 50/1 and 25/1.

York:

General stats: William Haggas boasts a 25% strike rate at York, backing the stats up with an LSP reading of thirty-three points. 

Class 3 five furlong handicap scheduled for 2.05: Four favourites have prevailed via nine renewals during the last decade which is a fine record in such a competitive event.  Four-year-olds have won four of the last eight contests.

Listed ‘Rockingham Stakes’ scheduled for 3.10: Nine of the last ten renewals have been secured by horses scoring at odds of 15/2 or less, stats which include three successful favourites.

Class 2 mixed vintage six furlong handicap scheduled for 3.45: Richard Fahey has saddled silver and bronze medals since securing the previous two renewals.  Two of the last three favourites have won at odds of 13/2 and 6/1.

2YO seven furlong maiden event scheduled for 4.20: Mark Johnston saddled the first two winners at odds of 8/1 & 6/1 before missing last year‘s event.  Mark held two options earlier in the week.

Eighteen furlong handicap scheduled for 4.55: Three and four-year-olds have dominated the contest to date with junior raiders leading 3-2 via six contests.  Mark Tompkins has saddled two of the last four winners and the trainer only had Astromagick potentially representing the stable at the time of writing.  The four-year-old was made 3/1 favourite for this event last year when finishing sixth of twelve.