Stat of the Day, 14th October 2012
Despite seemingly being a hopeless cause yesterday in a 34 runner field, Countrywide Flame beat all bar one of his rivals. The winner, Aaim To Prosper, was the ultimate stats buster. He was the joint second highest weighted winner ever, and the first horse ever to regain the Cesarewitch (he won in 2010 too). In truth, it was a brilliant training performance, and a superb ride from Kieren Fallon, who showed he’s still got plenty of magic in his riding boots despite the passage of time.
Still we got paid on the place, and made a small profit on the day.
I was tempted to roll with the Irish Cesarewitch today (only 27 runners!), and quite liked Missunited from a stats perspective… But instead I’ve gone with the only very marginally more straightforward Munster National Handicap Chase. That’s the…
Sixteen runners over three soft miles and sixteen fences. Hmm.
The route in here is a horse’s impressive course record. Specifically, Mr Cracker has won four of his eight chases, and been third on three further occasions. All four chase wins were here at Limerick, where his record reads P1111.
That quartet of victories includes two Grade 2 wins, and Mr Cracker was last seen when taking bronze in the Grade 1 Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse, very good form in the context of this race.
He’s won on soft ground, and won his only previous try at three miles.
Mr Cracker will carry top weight in this Grade A race (which equates to a Listed handicap chase). Given that he’s a dual Grade 2 winner, and Grade 1 placed, that’s fair enough as he’s the best horse here. However, he does have an absence of 539 days to overcome.
Again, this apparent negative may not be, as I’ve written about handicap chases running off a layoff previously. Long and short is that they often run very well fresh.
So conditions are in our favour, and the money is coming for him too. He’s 9/1 with William Hill, best odds guaranteed.
I’ll be wagering each way (beware this sixteen runner field would only pay three places if one horse pulls out), and looking to Davy Russell to bring home the bacon on Mr Cracker.
Do make sure you…
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