Stat of the Day, 18th October 2012
We got another battling run for our money yesterday, as for the second day in a row, only the short-priced favourite beat us home. Art Scholar belied the 10/1 odds we’d taken on him in finishing just over three lengths behind a useful-looking 7/4 First Mohican. Our selection was eventually sent off at 15/2 and was a good 2.5 lengths clear of a strung out pack and made us another 0.75pts, as we recorded our fourth second-place finish in five days.
I know many of you take the SotD horse in a reversed forecast when there’s a shortish favourite and yesterday’s Exacta paid £15.70. I’m also well aware that many of you will back the featured trainer’s other runners, if we’ve mentioned them in the daily blog. Those who backed Demora yesterday at 14/1 were well rewarded as she came home a 10/1 winner. Obviously neither the supplementary bets, nor any forecasts are “advised bets”, but the stats have merely highlighted a possibility!
That’s the good news, now for the not so good. Thursday’s racing, despite the volume of racing scheduled, doesn’t lend itself readily to an ideal SotD, the two or three main contenders all seemed too short in the market to offer any real value, so I’m back to looking at consistency and “horses for courses”. To this end, it’s a spin on the Dunstall Park Polytrack for a Class 5 Handicap over 5 furlongs (and 20 yards, of course!) aka the…
Trainer David Evans has a respectable, if not spectacular record at Wolverhampton (11% strike rate & 30% placed), but he does have in his yard, a 4 yr old lady who is a model of consistency pretty much wherever she runs, and she runs pretty often: some 32 races under her belt already.
Our selection today is Mother Jones, whose overall career record is 4 wins and 15 places from 32 races across both turf and all-weather: a strike rate of 12.5% for the win and a place record of 59.4%. She has proved more effective on All-Weather tracks, though, where she is 2 wins and 6 places from 12 (16.67% & 66.67% respectively) and her record at Wolverhampton reads 413146322 : another 66.67% place strike rate.
She comes into today’s race in particularly good (if not winning) form, she hasn’t failed to make the frame in any of her last seven races, as she was placed 5 consecutive times prior to resuming winning ways at Brighton early last month. She then followed that up with a good second in a C&D claimer last time out and this reliable type should give another usual good account of herself and is likely to be thereabouts once again.
She has actually won four times from 5f to 6f including 2 wins on polytrack. She was beaten by 3 lengths behind Last Sovereign when finishing second of 9 at 12-1 on her latest outing over this course and distance last month and she has already won 3 races this season.
I think she stands a very good chance of adding another victory to her tally today, but based on her place record an E/W bet looks a safer option on a difficult day. As things stand, there’s enough in the 13/2 BOG on offer at Bet365 for us to go down the E/W route.
So, for me (and SotD records) it’s 0.5pts E/W on Mother Jones at 13/2 BOG with Bet365, but you really should take time to…
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