Stat of the Day, 19th October 2012

Stat of the Day 19/10

Stat of the Day, 19th October 2012

Another day, another E/W placer! I advised a 13/2 E/W bet on the ultra-consistent Mother Jones yesterday, based on her uncanny ability to finish in the top three at will. The logic was that if she gave her normal good account of herself, we’d be having a free 0.5pt on the win element, should she improve.

As it happened, she had no friends in the market (except for our loyal SotD readers!) and drifted quite markedly from a low of 9/2 out to a very generous 9/1 at the off. Mother Jones duly obliged and ran her usual race and finished third, still running on. It represented another 63% profit on stakes for the day and became our fifth placer in six days and 11 from 18 this month. This level of consistency is nice for the ego, but it isn’t boosting the bank by much, so it’s high time we had a winner!

To this end, we’re heading back to the turf and up to the North West (some say Lancashire: God’s own county and some say Merseyside) for a Class 3 Handicap over a mile. We expect twelve of the original fourteen runners to battle it out on heavy ground in the…

4.45 Haydock

Three weeks ago, we took SotD to Haydock and although our selection was unplaced that day,we also highlighted the performances of Tom Dascombe and Natasha Eaton in our piece. They combine today for our selection, which runs at 4.45.

Tom Dascombe’s record in handicap contests at Haydock is up with the best of them: 13 wins from 42 (31%) for a level stakes profit of some 18pts (43% ROI), whilst a total of 19 (45%) of them have been placed. It could be argued that if his horse is going to make the frame there’s a 68% chance it’ll go on to win. Tom’s actually got three runners at Haydock today, but two of them (Unknown Villain & Cool Runnings) are competing in a maiden event and he is therefore only represented by one handicapper, Chosen Character: our pick of the day.

Chosen Character will be ridden by Natasha Eaton again today and is her only scheduled ride of the day, so she’s going to need to give it her all  to maintain her own excellent record at the track. This talented up and coming jockey actually has the best Haydock stats on display today. She has ridden 5 winners and a place from just 12 attempts at the track: that win strike rate of 42% is exceptional and has generated level stakes profits for her followers of an impressive 27pts (225%)

I referred you back to three weeks ago, when I mentioned this Dascombe/Eaton/Chosen Character combination and the result was another victory for the team that day under today’s conditions ie Class 3 handicap over a mile on heavy ground, ran at 4.45 on a damp Friday afternoon at Haydock. Can lightning strike twice?

Chosen Character is a proven front-runner as he showed last time out, but he may not have it all his own way today as there is likely to be quite a bit of early pace from elsewhere. This might mean he’ll trade longer in-play, but he showed in his July hat-trick that he does not have to lead to win.

Chosen Character is having a tremendous year, winning 5 times already including two in September (the latest was over C&D on heavy). Three of his victories have come under today’s jockey, Natasha Eaton, who he clearly gets on very well with (she’s 11241 on him). He had the re-opposing Extraterrestrial more than five lengths behind last time out and is expected to make a bold bid for a second hat trick inside 3 months. The form of that last C&D win is working out well and I expect another good show today.

So, the trainer has a great record here, as does the jockey. The horse is in good form and 3 wins from 4 suggests he likes the track too. A record of 2 from 2 on heavy ground will help our cause today, as both of those were over today’s course & distance.

It won’t be a shoo-in today, but the 4/1 BOG generally on offer is good enough for me, so it’s a 1pt win bet at 4/1 BOG on Chosen Character, but you really should take time to…

Click here for all the latest odds for the 4.45 Haydock.