Stat of the Day, 20th October 2012
In what now seems like Groundhog Day, I can tell you that yesterday’s selection Chosen Character finished second, our sixth horse in the last week to make the frame. Unfortunately, we were on a 4/1 shot yesterday, so no E/W return to report this morning.
We’re heading East over the Pennines today to check on an old battler tackling a mile and a half in a Class 6 Claimer. Our selection is due to face 10 rivals on soft/heavy ground in the…
Trainer Geoffrey Harker has a decent enough record in non-handicap events at Catterick. He has a win strike rate of 26.2% and a place strike rate of 42.9% from 42 runners since April 2008. That’s pretty good going to maintain that level of consistency over a sustained period of time. And in his yard, he has a horse who really loves Catterick and saves his best form for the course, but we’ll come to him in a moment!
I don’t want the outstanding performance of today’s horse to detract from Mr Harker’s record without him. Our selection aside: the trainer still boasts a 22.2% strike rate in these events, which is some achievement in itself.
It will now come as no surprise to SotD regulars that Geoffrey Harker only runs one horse today. This is, of course, our selection: Eijazz.
At the top of this piece, I mentioned an old battler and Eijazz certainly fits the profile! He’s an 11 yr old veteran of some 92 races: winning 13 of them and making the frame a further 26 times. A win strike rate of 14.1% and a place strike of 42.4% wouldn’t have made you rich backing him blindly. In fact the winning bets would have left you looking at a loss of 4.90pts at level stakes.
However, when it comes to Catterick, the story changes…
In all races: 8 wins from 33 (24.2%), 11.5pts profit (34.8% ROI), 22 placed finishes (66.67%) generating 31.2pts profit for E/W backers.
Non-handicaps: 7 from 16 (43.8%), 13.5pts profit (84.4% ROI), 15 placed finishes (93.8%) generating 27.9pts from E/W bets
Non-hcps over today’s trip: 7 from 15 (46.7%), 14.5pts profit (96.7% ROI), 14 placed finishes (93.3%) generating 28.4pts from E/W bets
There’ll be some cut in the ground today, of course, but that won’t bother him, he has won here on soft ground and he won his only ever race on heavy ground (also here at Catterick).
In short, the trainer has a decent Catterick record without Eijazz, but Eijazz has won on the course 8 times: 7 of those over C&D, including this same race in 2010.
He has a little to find at the weights today and this is reflected in the price of 8/1 BOG (Bet365), so the play today is 0.5pts E/W on Eijazz at 8/1 BOG with bet365, but you really should take time to…
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