Stat of the Day, 24th October 2012
It was another feeling of deja vu yesterday, as once more I managed to find the runner-up of the race. Unfortunately, there wasn’t enough room in the 9/2 we took about Clumber Place to afford us an E/W bet, but hindsight remains a wonderful thing! As it happens, Caramelita under track specialist Freddie Tylicki beat our mount relatively comfortably by the best part of two lengths.
Today, we’re heading back towards London for a trip on the Sunbury-on-Thames polytrack. The contest is a 7-furlong, Class 4 Handicap and we’re expecting 14 runners to go to post for a competitive-looking…
After a recent spate of near misses at prices only just profitable at E/W, we’re going to try something a bit more left field today, as we take a look at one of racing’s less well-known trainers, but a successful one in certain spheres nonetheless.
Karen George’s overall record over the last year though isn’t brilliant, it has to be said. 9 winners from 91 for a loss of almost 37pts at level stakes(40% of stakes) isn’t something to write home about. However five of those nine winners have been here at Kempton, where her record since last November is far more pleasing on the eye at 154116872117 : five winners and a place from twelve runners, producing a handy 59% return on all stakes. Of those 12 races, 8 were handicap events and her record reads 51182117 : 4 winners and a place from 8 for a level stakes profit of 10.2pts (127.5%).
Karen has two handicappers at Kempton this evening. The first, Belle Park, has a squeak of making the frame in the 5.50 race, but is up against an odds on favourite and several more well-liked types and as such, is currently a 20/1 shot generally.
Our selection is also a bit of a punt today, but does seem to have a bit more in his favour, as we’re going with Good Authority.
Good Authority has a decent record on All-Weather tracks, winning two races from eight with a further three runner-up finishes (sounds like an SotD horse!). He is only 1 from 5 here at Kempton, but that solitary victory was his only effort over both course & distance and he returns to his optimum trip of 7 furlongs today. His record at this trip is quite impressive, reading 021131, the last of those was a battling victory at Leicester seven weeks ago. Backing this horse over 7 furlongs would have netted 12.3pts from the 6 races.
Tom McLaughlin was on board that day at Leicester and he’s back in the saddle today. Tom also has a creditable record here at Kempton with 3 wins and 3 places from 14 rides in the last 6 months and today will be the 7th time he’s ridden Good Authority, having already tasted victory twice along with a 3rd place finish at Ascot.
This is a tricky affair today and we’re far from guaranteed a return, but reverting back to an all-weather track at this favoured distance makes the current 20/1 BOG on offer look quite attractive. We stand a decent chance of a place finish today so it’s 0.5pts E/W on Good Authority at 20/1 BOG. You can take your pick from Bet365 or BetFred for that price or you can always…