Stat of the Day, 29th October 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 29th October

Well, slow is as slow does, or at least that was the case yesterday as the woefully one-paced Minella Stars was outplodded by three other one-paced beasts. That we took 9/2 about the 5/2 favourite means the long term looks rosy. But in the short term we need a winner.

Maybe it will be today, when we head to the Midlands, and the…

3.20 Leicester

After bombing out with a good trainer stat yesterday, we’ll have a bash at a good horse stat this afternoon.

Cutting to the chase, the horse is Barista, and he likes this course and distance. Indeed, his record over course and distance is 12322, with the win coming on heavy and one of the silver medals on soft.

As such, the ground should be no issue for him (he’s placed on four of the six races he’s run on soft ground). As for seven furlongs, well, three winners and seven more placed finishes from seventeen starts gives hope there; and his full Leicester form is two wins and five places from eight starts.

He’s in the right grade today, too. In selling and claiming company, Barista’s form figures are 313312232. In other words, he’s been in the frame in all nine of his plating class races. Today’s claiming company should be spot on then.

And, although there seem to be better handicapped horses in the race, with the exception of Liliargh (about which I’d be very wary of betting, given how connections are prepared to ‘give her away’), Barista is not badly in with all of them.

The one negative is that Barista is bidding to give his trainer, Brian Forsey, his first winner after 41 previous attempts. (He has been second three times in nine starts for the trainer).

7/1 BOG is available with Bet365, and that’s worth taking each way.

Click here for the latest odds on the 3.20 Leicester.

[Quick side note: I am heading to USA this afternoon for the Breeders Cup, so the rest of this week’s postings may appear at fairly random times. The easiest way to know if Stat of the Day is online is to either bookmark http://www.geegeez.co.uk/category/horse-racing-blog/daily-stat-of-the-day/ or to follow me on Twitter.]