Sat TV Trends: 3rd Nov 2012

Andy Newton is on hand with all the key TV trends for this Saturday’s meetings at Ascot, Newmarket, Wetherby & Down Royal…..

Ascot (C4/ATR)

2.35 –William Hill Priority Prices Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 2m

8 previous runnings
8/8 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
8/8 – Never raced at Ascot before
8/8 – Had won over at 2m or 2m1f over hurdles before
6/8 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles
5/8 – Placed favourites
5/8 – Having their first run of the season
5/8 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
5/8 – Unplaced last time out
4/8 – Won by a French bred horse
4/8 – Winning favourites (1 co, 1 joint)
4/8 – Ran at Huntingdon (2) or Aintree (2) last time out
3/8 – Ridden by a conditional jockey
2/8 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/8 – Won by Paul Nicholls
2/8 – Ridden by AP McCoy
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 13/2

3.10 – United House Gold Cup Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 3m

8 previous runnings
8/8 – Had won a chase race over at least 2 ½m
7/8 – Didn’t win last time out
6/8 – Aged 8 or older
6/8 – Had run at Ascot before (4 won)
5/8 – Officially rated 135 to 138 inc
5/8 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
5/8 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
5/8 – Unplaced favourites
5/8 – Were having their first run of the season
5/8 – Unplaced in their last race
5/8 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
5/8 – Carried 10-10 or more
4/8 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/8 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/8 – Ran at Sandown last time out
2/8 – Ridden by AP McCoy
2/8 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 11/1

Wetherby (C4/RUK)

2.15 – OLBG.com Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 2m110y

5 previous runnings
5/5 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
5/5 – Never raced at Wetherby before
5/5 – Had won over at least 2m1f over hurdles before
5/5 – Finished unplaced last time out
5/5 – Had between 2-5 previous hurdles wins to their name
4/5 – Were having their first run of the season
4/5 – Placed favourites
3/5 – Had won a NH Flat race previously
3/5 – Ran at Punchestown last time out
2/5 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 5 years is 11/2
Alasi won the race for Paul Webber 12 months ago

2.50 – John Smith´s Hurdle (Registered As The West Yorkshire Hurdle) Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4
3m1f

10/10 – Had won over at least 2m4f over hurdles before
10/10 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
9/10 – Failed to win their last race
9/10 – Placed favourites
9/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
8/10 – Aged 6,7 or 8 years-old
7/10 – Officially rated 149 or higher
7/10 – Ran at either Aintree (4) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
6/10 – Finished unplaced last time out
4/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Had won at Wetherby before
3/10 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
Fair Along won the race in 2009 & 2010
Restless Harry won the race in 2011
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

3.25 – bet365 Charlie Hall Chase Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) CH4 3m1f

9/10 – Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
9/10 – Running for the first time that season
9/10 – Won by an 8 year-old or older
9/10 – Priced 7/1 or shorter8/10 – Favourites placed
8/10 – Rated 151 or bigger
8/10 – Raced at either Ayr (3), Aintree (3) or Cheltenham (2) last time out
8/10 – Won at least 4 times over fences previously
7/10 – Won by either an 8 or 9 year-old
6/10 – Had raced at Wetherby previously (2 won)
5/10  – Came 1st or 2nd in their previous race
2/10 – Favourites that won
2/10 – Ridden by Paul Moloney
2/10 – Ridden by Timmy Murphy
2/10 – Trained by Evan Williams
2/10 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
Only 2 horses aged less than 7 years-old have won since 1981
The race has been won by a previous winner six times since 1981
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies won the Charlie Hall Chase in 1992, 1994, 2005 & 2007
The average winning returned SP in the last 10 years is 8/1

Down Royal (C4/ATR)

2.25 – JNwine.com Champion Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+) Winner €84,000 CH4 3m

9/10 – Won at least 5 times over fences previously
9/10 – Won a Grade 2 Chase or better previously
8/10 – Won over at least 3m over fences previously
8/10 – Won by an horse aged 8 or older
7/10 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths+
7/10 – Came 1st or 2nd in their last race
6/10 – Won a Grade 1 Chase previously
6/10 – Priced 11/4 or less
5/10 – Having their first run of the new season (inc last 5 winners)
5/10 – Favourites that won
4/10 – Ran at Limerick last time out
3/10 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/10 – Had raced at Down Royal previously
3/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Run at Aintree last time out
2/10 – Trained by Arthur Moore
The average winning returned SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

Newmarket (C4/RUK)

1.55 – E B F Piper-Heidsieck Montrose Fillies´ Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) CH4 1m

9/10 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
8/10 – Had won just 1 race before
8/10 – Foaled in February or later
8/10 – Had won over at least 7f before
7/10 – Won last time out
7/10 – Had between 1-2 runs before
6/10 – Ran at either Newmarket (3) or Nottingham (3) last time out
6/10 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
6/10 – Unplaced favourites
6/10 – Had won over 1m or further before
5/10 – Went onto run in the following season’s Epsom Oaks
5/10 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/10 – Had run at Newmarket (Rowley) before
0/10 – Winning favourites
Oaks winner Ouija Board was third in this race in 2003
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/1

3.40 – Betfred Ben Marshall Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) CH4 1m

9/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Aged 5 or younger
8/10 – Had won over 1m before
8/10 – Had won at least twice before
8/10 – Finished in the top three last time out
7/10 – Had 4 or more runs that season
6/10 – Won by a 3 year-old
6/10 – Placed favourites
5/10 – Had run at Newmarket (Rowley) before
5/10 – Won last time out
4/10 – Won a Listed or better class race before
3/10 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/10 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/10 – Trained by John Gosden
1/10 – Winning mare/filly
1/10 – Winning favourite
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1

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