Stat of the Day, 2nd November
A non-runner yesterday, though it was backed in prior to withdrawal.
Today I’m siding with a trainer who does very well at HQ, in the…
Back end maidens wouldn’t be everybody’s idea of a robust betting proposition, but Johnny G(osden) does very well in such races.
In fact, backing all of his runners in Newmarket maidens in October and November would have yielded a profit of over 50 points at SP, and nearer 100 points on Betfair’s SP.
He has just one runner at HQ today, and it’s in the maiden. Cousin Melchior has had a run already, when sixth in a Lingfield maiden. Although ‘only’ sixth, he was beaten barely three lengths having been outpaced throughout on that quick surface. The soft ground here is expected to help, and with the benefit of experience as well he might go close.
There is a even money favourite in the race, but it’s hard not to think there’s a reason why he’s been off the track for three months since a fine run at Ascot on debut. He may be one to field against. As such, I’m going win only on Cousin Melchior at around the 5/1 mark.