Stat of the Day, 5th November 2012
The drought shows no sign of abating and we reach touching distance of the start of Stat of the Day a year ago. It might be helpful to remember that since that innocent beginning this column has added 120 points of profit to the ledger, despite the recent barren spell. Heartening for the long-termists, but all will seek a reversion to the winning ways soonest… me included!
Today we’re heading for the metropolis, and the…
Nicky ‘The Chemist’ Henderson has a high strike rate wherever he runs his beasts, and Kempton is one of his favourite tracks. Over the last five years, he has led in 53 winners from 179 runners for a profit of 37.74 points.
Although his strike rate is slightly lower in handicaps, his profit figure is higher, and that’s the sort of underlying trend we like here at SotD. Of Hendo’s two runners, he has one in a handicap hurdle (the other, Golden Hoof, runs in the opening novices’ hurdle).
That handicap racer is Mush Mir. Mush Mir is a consistent sort, having been in the first three in all four of his hurdle starts. Moreover, he’s won three of them, finishing third on the other try.
This represents a tough assignment as there are many potentially smart horses in opposition, but Mush Mir has the winning habit over hurdles and conditions look optimal. A winner of his only start on good to soft; and a winner of five of his seven races within a furlong of this distance.
He does like to lead in his races and that’s not a given here, but if he can get his way out front, he should offer a bold sight to all behind. 11/1 each way BOG with both bet365 and BetVictor is fair enough.