Stat of the Day, 6th November 2012

Stat of the Day, 6th November 2012

Stat of the Day

Mush Mir ran better than his finishing position suggests yesterday, and will be winning again soon (in a small field when he can lead).

Today it’s the fibresand, an excellent trainer with a brilliant record at the course, and the…

3.40 Southwell

One of the most under-rated and under-stated of flat trainers, is Hughie Morrison. His record, in handicaps especially, in recent years bears close scrutiny, despite a leaner time this term.

On Southwell’s deep surface, his record is second to none, with 28 winners from 89 runners (30.34%) since 2005. Those winners have netted profits of 48.77 units at SP.

Today he saddles the lightly raced maiden, Place That Face, and she looks to have her best chance of victory yet. So far, in a five race career, she’s finished second twice and third twice. Her latest run was a silver medal over course and distance in a similar race to this, where she was no match for the winner but had everything else a length and a half and more behind.

That was her first run since February and she’s entitled to be a lick fitter here. The opposition is typically modest – we rarely see a future top class racer exit a Southwell maiden –  and Gaelic Wizard might be the chief threat. But that fellow gives the impression he’s a weak finisher as he’s been beaten by a neck or less on his last three starts.

This will also be the Wizard’s first attempt at Southwell’s more testing strip, and I’d prefer to side with a filly which has shown she can act on it, as not all horses do. Place That Face looks like she does.

It’s not a two horse race, though, as both Ella Fitzgerald and Finefrenzyrolling offer a fair level of form.

But Hughie knows what he’s doing, and his filly has improvement on her second start off a break, and I’m betting win only Place That Face. No odds at time of writing, but I’m expecting around 11/4 to be available (as it is on Betfair currently).

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.40 Southwell