Stat of the Day, 7th November 2012
A one-paced third for Place That Face yesterday, and I’m afraid she does look woefully single speed.
It’s a day for the randomizer button today, and I’ll press it in the…
At first glance, this looks a very trappy heat… and it may pan out to be just that. But there is one horse in here for whom conditions will suit very well.
Aegean Destiny wouldn’t immediately catch the eye of a casual punter scanning the race card, but then nor would many a Stat of the Day pick. She has an unfashionable trainer (John Mackie), unflashy colours (black and red), and uninspiring form figures (3F0). So why nominate her?
Because she loves this sort of muddy ground. Indeed, she’s won two and made the frame in eight of her twelve starts on soft or good to soft turf; she’s just one win and five places from 26 starts on other going conditions. On the forecast soft turf, she’s placed in all but one of her six races.
And two miles suits her just dandy too, with one of her three runs at the trip culminating in victory. This would also be her class, with a win and a place from just four hurdle starts in Class 4 so far, giving her a 25% win and 50% place strike rate (albeit from a very small sample).
Aegean Destiny goes best in reasonable sized fields when there’s a good pace, and those are precisely the components of today’s race from a pace/field perspective. She comes here off a nice third place on the flat last month, so fitness should be fine, and everything looks set for a good run.
She’s an each way price, at 14/1 BOG, and I’m recommending you back her each way. With ‘just’ fifteen runners, we’ll only get three places, but with a consolation that the place will pay a quarter the odds.