Stat of the Day, 12th November 2012
No play yesterday, as both of Anthony Honeyball’s runners were withdrawn in quick succession yesterday morning. And so, on to my least favourite racing day of the week: Monday’s fayre is invariably poor and today doesn’t look great either. Limerick has been abandoned, Carlisle’s track is pretty boggy and the average field size is just 6 runners. In fact, the only race with 8 runners is the bumper, so we’re steering clear of this track today. With small fields, we have no leeway for an E/W bet and there’s also less chance of beating the market in the manner we’ve been accustomed to.
With all that in mind, we head off to the village of Rolleston in Nottinghamshire for a Class 3 Handicap Hurdle over 2 miles and 4.5 furlongs and the going is said to be Good (quite a rarity at present!). We’re expecting a total of 11 runners to jump off in the…
I decided to look for a decent E/W bet this morning, based on the lack of quality/small choice of races presented to me and I was really left with just 4 races to consider. On closer inspection of the Southwell declarations, I noticed that Mrs Lawney Hill has had a reasonable amount of success at getting her horses placed here. Her career record at Southwell is 6 wins and 6 places from 27 attempts, yet in the last two years alone her place strike rate has risen to an excellent 50%, with 8 of 16 making the frame in that period.
Mrs Hill has just the one runner today: Brough Academy.
Brough Academy is a lightly raced 6yr old who has never finished outside of the first four in any of his six races to date. He contested 3 bumpers in July/August last year, followed by 2011/12 winter campaign of just three hurdle events. His full record currently reads 231214, which offers a small profit at level stakes and a place strike rate of 83%. In fact he would probably have finished second last time out to maintain a 100% record, had he not been quite badly hampered to a virtual standstill, yet regained his composure to take 4th place, just 2.5 lengths behind the eventual runner-up.
His last two contests were both at Fontwell where he was partnered by David Bass, who takes the ride again today. David is no stranger to Southwell either, as he also possesses a decent record around this track, where he has a win strike rate of just under 30% and a place strike rate of some 65%. Today will actually be the 10th time that David has ridden one of Mrs Hill’s horses at Southwell, having won two of the previous nine with a further three place finishes.
So, bearing in mind the place records of the trainer and the jockey here at the track and the general consistency of the horse itself, an E/W bet seems the most prudent if we can achieve a reasonable price.
Having checked the markets at 9.55am, 12/1 BOG was available with Bet365 , Stan James and BetVictor, so there should be little problems for you to get the same as I’m taking, as my play today is 0.5pts E/W on Brough Academy at 12/1 BOG, but you can always…