Stat of the Day, 15th November 2012
We’re not completely off the cold list just yet, but Dubawi Island certainly warmed things up for us yesterday. As expected, he attempted to lead from pillar to post, but the wide draw possibly used up too much energy in the early stages. He tired late on, drifted to the far right (I’m not sure if the first-time visor was of any assistance!), and just clung on a place. We advised a 10/1 E/W play, he was backed into 4/1 jt fav just before the off before returning home in 3rd place at that price of 4/1 (2nd fav). Once again, we smashed the market and helped ourselves to 0.75pts in the process and I’m hopeful of more today.
They say it’s a long way to Tipperary, so it’s an early start for SotD as we cross the Irish Sea to take a look at a 3-mile, 11-runner Handicap Hurdle on Soft Ground. It certainly won’t suit the weaker horses in the…
When we look at the more successful Irish trainers, the name of John Supple doesn’t always spring to mind. Especially when you look at his more recent strike rate of just 9 winners from exactly 100 races spread out over 3 years and 4 days. That poor-ish strike rate doesn’t tell the whole story and those 9 winners were priced so well that a near-28 pt profit was recorded. And when it comes to finding winners at Clonmel, it seems to be a different story.
The sample size is admittedly small, but between 1st September 2011 and 31st May this year, he sent his only four Clonmel runners to post, all in hurdle races like today’s contest and his record from those four races reads 1412 for a 5.25pts profit and a 100% place strike rate.
The last of those outings was by today’s SotD selection: Roadtoabbeyfeale, John’s sole runner today.
Roadtoabbeyfeale comes into this contest in excellent form with figures of 327211 in his last six outings. He seems to be continually improving and there’s a very good chance of him completing the hat trick today and is weighted to confirm the Limerick form from last time out with last Saturday’s Naas maiden winner A Decent Excuse, who he now meets with a 6lb pull in our/his favour.
The distance won’t be an issue today as has one win and one second place from his two attempts at three miles and both his last two races have been victories on testing ground, so that shouldn’t pose any dangers either. Stamina is something he shouldn’t be lacking, as he’s from a family of good staying chasers Seven Towers and Deep Bramble.
Regular jockey Eddie O’Connell takes the ride today, so he should know how to get the best out of our selection today.
We don’t normally pick favourites for SotD, but I expected Roadtoabbeyfeale to be around the 2/1 mark and upon checking the market at 9.00am, I was quite surprised to see both Paddy Power and Boylesports offering 7/2 BOG, so there should be some value in the early price. Thus, the play today is a 1pt win bet on Roadtoabbeyfeale at 7/2 BOG, but you can always…