Stat of the Day, 16th November 2012
A disappointing performance from Roadtoabbeyfeale yesterday. He was held up as expected and seemed to travel really well until the turn for home when a drive to the line would have been expected. The jockey shook the reins and cracked the whip a couple of times, but there was only a brief response, before a tame surrender. The eventual result was a 5th place finish at odds of 11/4. It didn’t dip as low as the 2/1 that I thought it might, but it was still more than 20% shorter than our advised 7/2 and this strategy will make profits in the long run.
However, it’s a short-term gain we’re after today, so we’re turning our attention to a 9-runner (was originally 12) Maiden for 2yr olds in the…
With a win strike rate of 38% generating a level stakes return on stakes of 106%, coupled with a place strike rate of 73%, Roger Varian is our man with a plan for Wolverhampton.
You’d think it might be hard to tweak those figures to make them any better, but if we take his Wolverhampton runners in non-handicap contests in isolation, we find ourselves a further angle. His first Wolverhampton non-handicap contest was 14 months ago today (16/09/11) when Moon Over Water finished 3rd at 6/1. In all, Roger has saddled sixteen runners in this type of contest and the results are very impressive indeed: 3171421143121223, six winners from sixteen and only three of them failed to make the frame: two of which finished fourth.
So, what I’m looking for today is a Roger Varian horse in a non-handicap event at Wolverhampton for an E/W bet at a reasonable price, if we’re being specific! I see that there two potential candidates this evening. Yarroom is likely to be a warm favourite (currently best priced at 13/8) in the 6.15 race, but there’s little room for manoeuvre/error there, but our selection runs in the following race and seems to fit the bill nicely.
Today’s SotD selection, therefore, is: Ersaal.
Ersaal is by Dubawi out of a mare who was successful as a miler at the 2yr old stage and he is a decent-looking sort holding some Group race entries. He made an encouraging debut at Newmarket, but didn’t seem to go on from that last time out at Newbury. Both those races were on turf at 7 furlongs and better things are expected as he steps up in distance to today’s race of just under 9 furlongs.
Despite Ersaal not progressing as quickly as some might have expected, the fact that it’s a longer race and it’s at Wolverhampton may well be significant pointers this evening.
Based on Roger Varian’s record here and the expectations / breeding of this horse coupled with the fact that 18/1 BOG is available with BetVictor, I think there’s enough there to justify an E/W punt today, so the play today is a 0.5pt E/W bet on Ersaal at 18/1 BOG with BetVictor, but you can always…
P.S. Roger’s other runner at Wolverhampton this evening is Pekan Star, currently 16/1 in the 7.15 handicap race.