Stat of the Day, 17th November 2012
Roger Varian is rapidly becoming one of SotD’s favourite trainers and yesterday he added a winner and a place to his already impressive Wolverhampton non-handicap stats ( he’s now 15/18 there!). We selected Ersaal at 18/1 yesterday and I know many of you got a decent price (judging by my email inbox!). It opened on course at 7/1 and was smashed all the way to 9/2 at the off. He ran a brave race, but couldn’t get the win we’d like, eventually finishing 3rd, but when you’re getting 3.6/1 for a place on a 9/2 runner, beggars sometimes can’t be choosers! Incidentally, Roger’s only non-handicapper that we highlighted, Yarroom, won cosily.
I’m staying a way from Cheltenham again today and looking at some more all-weather action. It’s a lunchtime 10 furlong, Class 6 Handicapon the Polytrack. The going is, of course, standard for the 14 runners in the…
Whilst not the most prolific of trainers on display today, Jamie Osborne goes about his work at Lingfield quietly and consistently efficiently. 2012 has pretty kind to him at this venue, especially from an E/W punting perspective. Since the turn of the year, Jamie has saddled 13 runners in Lingfield handicaps and a return of 2 winners (15.4%) is satisfactory, but not earth-shattering. However, those two winners have helped him to a level stakes profit of 7pts = 54% return on stakes, which we’d all be happy with.
Yet, it’s the E/W angle I’m keener to explore today, as it transpires that in addition to those two winners, a further six runners have made the frame for a place strike rate of 62% and many of them at decent prices too. In fact , backing all 13 runners this year on an E/W basis would have netted you 14.6pts at SP and we all know that we don’t bet at SP! 😀
There’s just one horse fitting that bill today: Resplendent Alpha.
Resplendent Alpha has been effective on both turf and a variety of all-weather surfaces and his record in his last three outings here reads 122 with the latter race being over today’s Course & Distance, where he got off to a poor start but was staying well at the finish. He knows the course well, having competed here 26 times in the past. He’s a four-time course winner, including one over Course & Distance.
He had a poor year in 2010, but bounced back to decent form in 2011 and this year, winning three from 21 and making the frame on 11 occasions. The 11 place finishes meant that E/W backers were rewarded to a level stakes profit of 17 pts.
Based on the E/W returns enjoyed by Jamie Osborne’s horses here at Lingfield, coupled with Resplendent Alpha‘s own recent 50%+ place strike record, an E/W bet really does seem the order of the day. The Racing Post tissue had our selection as a possible 7/2 favourite, but the market disagreed at 9.30 am, where 10/1 BOG was widely available, so the play today is a 0.5pt E/W bet on Resplendent Alpha at 10/1 BOG, but you can always…