Stat of the Day, 19th November 2012
No joy yesterday as Double Chocolate seemed to run out of steam in the closing stages, slipping from 2nd to an eventual 5th over the last three fences. It was, however, another decent day for the traders amongst you, as our 9/1 shot was sent off at 11/2 (a 39% reduction) and actually traded as low as 2.32 on the exchanges.
Another long trip today, but no fences or turf to contend with as we tackle a Class 5 Handicap on the Polytrack. twelve runners are expected to race over a trip of just over 16.5 furlongs in the…
Today has a bit of a deja vu feeling to it, as today’s selection has been a prior SotD pick some 11 weeks ago today. She was advised at 9/2 that day and won comfortably at 11/4 and I’m hoping for more of the same.
The reasoning behind the selection is the same as it was back on 3rd September (click here for a more in-depth piece), but the stats have changed slightly.
Trainer Brian Ellison’s record in Wolverhampton handicaps isn’t the best by any stretch of the imagination, just 8 winners from 72 (11%) in the last two years for a loss of 37pts (51% of stakes) and a place strike rate of just 30.5% (22/72).
Jockey Silvestre de Sousa has fared little better in that time too. 22 winners from 148 (15%) for a loss of 35pts (24% of stakes) and a place strike rate of just 35.8% (53/148).
Yet, when they pair up at Wolverhampton, the results are fantastic. In all contests here at Dunstall Park the record reads 211311132862, 5 winners and 5 further places from just 12 races: a strike rate of 41.67% generating profits of 13.35pts at SP (+111.25%) and a place strike rate of 83.33% generating profits of over 20.5pts when backing all of them E/W.
Without going into stats overload: we can filter that record further into just handicap races at Wolverhampton, where the record reads 131113282, 44.44% winners for 14.25pts profit (+158%) and a place strike rate of 88.89% generating E/W profits of 21.56pts.
They have one qualifying selection today: Looks Like Rain (Mr Ellison’s only runner at the meeting), who was successful over C&D on her last visit here (the afore-mentioned SotD race). She’s a very consistent sort, making the frame on six of her last eight races and her recent poor run at Newcastle can be put down to the heavy conditions. She’s sure to relish a return to a faster surface today and the A/W in particular. She’s 1/1 here, she has one win and one place from two attempts under Silvestre de Sousa and overall she has one win and two places from just four all-weather contests.
A return to any semblance of her previous A/W form should see her go close today and as the current market is showing her at 8/1 BOG (BetVictor), our play today is 0.5pts E/W on Looks Like Rain, but you can (and really should)…