Stat of the Day, 22nd November 2012
Livia’s Dream came very close to providing us with a much-needed winner last night, as she gamely tried to take the race by the scruff of the neck. It’s quite possible that she set off for home a touch too early and it’s equally possible that the tussle for the lead took a little too much out of her as she was overhauled in the final yards by a fast finishing 33/1 winner. This meant that it was another E/W placer at an SP of 7/1, backed in from our advised 11/1. A small profit of 0.88pts on the day for us.
The weather continues to play merry with racing today and we’ve lost the meetings at Hereford, Wincanton & Thurles already, leaving us with just a NH card at Market Rasen and the evening Kempton meeting. We’re hardly spoiled for choice, so we’ll stay put and look at the day’s final contest: a 7-furlong, 14-runner handicap which is the…
In the last twelve months or so Michael Squance has had 16 runners in handicap contests here at Kempton, yielding six winners (37.5%) and a total of 10 placed horses (62.5%). Backing each of the 16 runners to a £10 stake has generated a profit of £510.
The bare stats don’t always tell the full story, of course and it must be mentioned that the figures are skewed slightly by one horse, today’s SotD selection and Michael’s only runner anywhere today: Diplomatic.
Diplomatic is a horse that just loves the A/W surfaces as all of his five career wins have been on Polytrack. Aside from a solitary 33/1 win at Lingfield in February, his other four victories have all been here at Kempton, where his record reads 11221012 for 44pts profit. He is 3 from 5 (plus 1 x 2nd) over today’s course and distance.
Michael Squance’s record excluding Diplomatic is still creditable, but this horse is rapidly turning into a Kempton specialist. I don’t envisage the drop back to 7 furlongs to cause undue problems, but this is offset by the fact that our selection is bottom weight in today’s race.
At 9.55am the best price available was 11/2 BOG generally, so it’s a straight 1pt win bet on Diplomatic at 11/2 BOG. I’m using Paddy Power today, but you can take your pick this morning by availing yourselves of the opportunity to…