Stat of the Day, 26th November 2012
An unwanted day off yesterday, thanks to the weather and it hasn’t eased much today either. It’s definitely a case of Wet,Wet, Wet, but I’m not sure if love is all around us today!
We do, thankfully, have two meetings taking place, but somewhat strangely they’re both on turf, where conditions will be testing to say the least and the A/W card at Southwell has been abandoned! We’re expecting severe disruption to the programme this week, but for today we’re going to tackle a Listed Mares’ Hurdle.
This Class 1 race will be run over 3 miles and half a furlong and there’s currently eight runners set to slog it out on ground officially described as soft. More rain is expected, so it could move towards being heavier later for the…
A bit of change of tack for SotD today, our selection isn’t a longer-priced E/W shout and her trainer doesn’t have a good record at this track. In fact, he has no record at the track at all! But there’s still enough stats-based evidence for me to have confidence in finding a winner.
Our trainer today is Limerick-based Charles Byrnes and he makes his Kempton debut today with a decent-looking 7yr old bay mare who has performed really well both over hurdles (like today) and also in chase events.
The lady in question is Knockfierna, whose career record over obstacles reads as eight wins and two places from eighteen starts: four wins and a place from seven over hurdles (4&1/9 when chasing). She hasn’t raced over hurdles since last May, but her previous hurdling form (Grade 2 winner last year) gives her a great chance here today and her excellent chasing ability means she shouldn’t have any issues jumping.
I’ve gone with Knockfierna today, mainly due to the testing conditions underfoot, she’s sure to relish the mud. Her record over obstacles in ground officially described as Soft or softer reads 72111211O11O6 : seven wins from thirteen. She will be ridden by Davy Russell today for the eighth time, their record together is an impressive 1116116 and they are 3/3 together over hurdles for just shy of 12pts profit at level stakes.
She faces tough opposition today in the form of the Henderson/Geraghty mount: Kells Belle, but there remains some doubts as to whether this one deserves her current mark of 148, meaning she may well find it difficult to concede 8lbs to our selection today and she may also need a run, having been away from the track for over seven months.
All things considered, I think we’ve a solid chance of returning to the winners’ enclosure today and the SotD play is a straight 1pt win bet on Knockfierna at the 3/1 BOG widely available at 9.55 am. I’m using bet365 today (reinvesting some of Saturday’s returns), but if you prefer to use a different bookmaker, you can always…