Well I Declare: 27/11 to 01/12

As well as our regular day-by-day analysis, we kick off this week’s preview with some details about the upcoming three-day Hennessy meeting at Newbury, running from Thursday to Saturday. (Weather permitting, of course!)

Newbury’s Hennessy meeting details from last year:

Nineteen of the twenty winners were returned at odds of 12/1 or less.
Sixteen gold medallists were sent off at a maximum price of 6/1.

Favourites during the meeting (20 in total):
7 winners–4 placed–9 unplaced (Thurs: 3/7–Fri: 2/6–Sat: 2/7)
Three of the four odds on favourites obliged

Trainers with two or more winners:
5–Paul Nicholls (11/2, 7/2, Evs*, 1/2* & 1/8*)
2–Nicky Henderson (5/1 & Evs*)
2–Philip Hobbs (22/1 & 12/1)

Trainers of beaten favourites during the meeting:
6–Paul Nicholls
4–Nicky Henderson
One each for Jonjo O’Neill–Emma Lavelle–Fergal O’Brien

 

Day to date highlights (trainers):
Thursday:
12/1 double for Paul Nicholls

Saturday:
298/1 double for Philip Hobbs + second and third in the Hennessy at odds of 14/1 & 33/1
13/2 treble for Paul Nicholls

Toteplacepot dividends:
Thursday: £125.00—-Friday: 29.80—-Saturday: 118.60
10 year statistics for the Hennessy Gold Cup:
Eight of the last nine winners have been returned at odds of 10/1 or less.

Three favourites have won during the last decade with two other market leaders finishing in the frame.

The average official mark of the winners during the study period is 151.
Five of the last six winners ran off a minimal office mark of 150.
The nearest ‘qualifier’ this year is Planet Of Sound (152) who finished second last year at 14/1.
Only the top six horses in the handicap potentially race off a mark of 150+ via the five-day declarations:
169 Tidal Bay
162 Roberto Goldback
160 Bobs Worth
159 First Lieutenant
155 Junior
152 Planet of Sound.

Next highest: Hold On Julio and Lion Na Bearnai who are on 148.

Horse carrying eleven stones or less have secured five victories and nineteen places, compared to runners higher in the handicap who boast the same number of successes, though representatives have claimed just nine place prizes.

Popular trainer stats:

Paul Nicholls: Three winners (5/1-, 5/1** & 11/4*) and six placed horses at 28/1, 25/1, 7/1, 11/2*, 11/2 & 4/1*.
‘Team Pipe’: Two winners (25/1 & 9/4*) and four places (50/1, 25/1, 12/1 & 5/1).
Nicky Henderson: One winner (13/2) and three places (12/1, 15/2 & 13/2).
Philip Hobbs: Three placed horses at 33/1, 16/1 & 14/1.

 

Day by day analysis:

TUESDAY 27/11:

Lingfield:

General stats: Dark And Dangerous (2.00) is Brendan Powell’s only ride on the Lingfield card at the time of writing, the jockey still trying to shake off last week’s Fakenham nightmare.  Things have gone much better for Brendan at this venue as his 2/3 ratio confirms. 

12.30:  Five-year-olds have won four of the last five contests, whilst five of the seven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three (2/7, 8/11 & 5/4) winners.

1.00:  All seven winners have carried a minimum of 11-2 thus far. Only two of the eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions via seven renewals with just one (6/4) gold medallist having prevailed.

1.30:  Five-year-olds have secured three of the six contests to date and with the Philip Hobbs stable moving into good form as is usually the case en route to Newbury’s Hennessy meeting, De La Bach can figure prominently on behalf of the yard.  Five of the seven market leaders have finished in the money, statistics which include two (4/9 & 7/2) successful favourites.

2.00:  Aikideau is the only declared horse to have won on heavy ground in the past whereby Richard Rowe might boost his Hennessy Gold Cup chance (Tatenen) by saddling a winner in this contest.

2.30:  The last six winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more which eliminates the bottom five horses if you take the stats seriously.  Four favourites have won during the last six years.

3.00: Six-year-olds have won four of the seven renewals thus far, with Sapphire Rouge being this year’s only vintage representative.  Three market leaders have obliged via seven contests.

3.30:  Both (7/2 & 1/2) favourites have obliged in Lingfield’s finale.

 

WEDNESDAY 28/11:

Kempton:

General stats: I don’t enjoy offering negative statistics though if they save readers money, I am duty bound to head in that direction.  Although both Richard Hannon and Gary Moore offer strike rates of 14% at Kempton, the respective level stake losses for the trainers during the last five years stands at one hundred and forty-six and one hundred and eighteen points.

4.30 & 5.00 (two divisions): The three winners to date have carried weights of 9-4 or more when returned at odds of 20/1-14/1-10/1.

5.30: Both gold medallists thus far have been sent off as 5/4 favourites for their respective events.

6.00: All five market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include three winners.

6.30: Four renewals have slipped by since a successful favourite was recorded since the inaugural market leaders obliged at 9/4 back in 2007.

7.00: We still await the first successful market leader following three contests in which two favourites have secured silver medals, with the other ‘jolly’ finishing out of the money.  All three winners have carried a minimum weight of 8-12.

7.30: Three-year-olds have won three of the last five contests whilst just one (11/4) favourite has prevailed via six renewals thus far.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Jeremy Noseda, Garry Moss, Marco Botti and Kevin Ryan are the only trainers at Lingfield to have saddled more than one winner (two each) since the ‘new A/W season’ started when the turf campaign finished.  Nineteen favourites (of one description or another) and won via thirty-two races (59.4% ratio), whilst three of the four odds on market leaders have won.

12.00 & 12.30 (two divisions): Four of the eight renewals have been secured by favourites.

1.00: Two favourites have won five contests, though it’s worth pointing out that the last two gold medallists have scored at 66/1 and 25/1.

1.30: All six winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-5 whilst last year’s successful market leader was the first favourite to oblige.  Three of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

3.10: The six winners have scored at 16/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-6/1-9/2 thus far.  Although this is not a toteplacepot position, it’s worth noting that the last four market leaders have finished in the frame.

3.40: Three-year-olds have secured five of the twelve win and place positions, statistics which include two of the four winners which were returned at 10/1 and 5/2 favourite. The other three market leaders all finished out with the washing.

 

Wolverhampton:

This is the transferred meeting from Southwell.

 

THURSDAY 29/11:

Kempton:

General stats: Richard Rowe has saddled seven of his twelve winners on the flat in recent times here at Kempton where the trainer has produced an LSP figure of forty one points.

 

Newbury:

General stats: As the three-day Hennessy meeting starts, is as well to focus on the fact that just six trainers have saddled ‘double figures’ in terms of the number winners at Newbury during the last five years.  Strikes rates in brackets: 52 Nicky Henderson (22%)–42 Paul Nicholls (22%)–19 Philip Hobbs (13%)–18 Alan King (11%)–11 David Pipe (13%)–10 Tom George (16%).

Novice handicap hurdle event scheduled for 1.30: Five and six years olds have shared the last six (of seven) renewals of this event (five-year-olds lead 4-2), notwithstanding 15 of a total of 22 available toteplacepot positions.  All seven winners have carried weights of 10-12 or more to date.  Five-year-old’s come to this year’s gig on a hat trick whilst two favourites have obliged thus far.

Three mile novice chase scheduled for 2.05: Six-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a four timer on this occasion.  Paul Nicholls has secured three of the last eight contests, whilst last year’s successful market layer scored at odds of 2/7 which was scant reward for favourite backers who has endured beaten ‘jollies’ throughout the decade leading up to the 2012 renewal.

‘Gerry Fielden’ event scheduled for 3.15: Seven of the last nine winners have carried weights of 10-13 or less, whilst nine of the last fourteen favourites have reached the frame (four winners).

Bumper event scheduled for 3.45: Four-year-olds have won all nine renewals, though only the last three contests have been open for other vintage representatives.   Nicky Henderson has secured three of the last six renewals and the local trainer held two options earlier in the week.

 

Taunton:

General stats: The 37% strike rate of Paul Nicholls obviously holds centre stage, though John Ferguson’s 2/2 record at Taunton (two entries on the card on Sunday) obviously catches the eye.

 

Uttoxeter:

General stats: Dr Richard Newland has his team at the top of their game and with the trainer boasting a 32% at the track, Richard’s only entry earlier in the week was Ardkilly Witness in the scheduled 12.15 event.

Three mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.20: Six-year-olds have claimed five of the seven contests, whilst six winners were returned at odds of 5/1 or less, statistics which include three successful favourites.

 

FRIDAY 30/11:

Doncaster:

General stats: James Ewert held no fewer than twelve entries at Doncaster for the weekend, the trainer boasting stats of 6/16, figures which have produced twenty-one points of level stake profits.  This was a particularly interesting scenario given that James had saddled just eight runners during the first twenty-five days of the month (one winner).

 

Musselburgh:

General stats: Only four of the potentially represented trainers have saddled ten or more winners at Musselburgh in the last five years (strike rates in brackets): 14 Lucinda Russell (12%)–13 Donald McCain (23%)–12 Jim Goldie (12%)–12 Ferdy Murphy (13%).  Jim boasts the only LSP figure of the quartet.

Conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 12.10: All eight winners have carried weights of 10-10 or more.  Three of the last four favourites have prevailed.

Juvenile hurdle event scheduled for 12.40:  Two market leaders have obliged in this contest via seven renewals.

Class 5 maiden hurdle event scheduled for 1.45: Four-year-olds have secured four of the seven renewals thus far with six-year-olds having registered three victories.  Four favourites have won whilst the biggest priced winner was returned at just 4/1.

Class 3 two-mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.20: Six and seven-year-olds had won all seven contests (6YO led 4-3) before the trend went ‘belly up’ twelve months ago.  Just two market leaders have obliged thus far.

Bumper event scheduled for 3.25: Favourites have won six of the eight renewals to date, the same stats that four-year-olds boast in the contest.  A sobering statistic however relates to last year’s 80/1 gold medallist!

 

Newbury:

General stats: Barafundle was the only entry on the card of Jenny Candlish earlier in the week, with the trainer boasting stats of 2/7 at Newbury in recent times, figures which have produced thirteen points of level stake profits.  For the record, Jenny had French Ties involved on Saturday’s card at the time of writing.

Juvenile hurdle event scheduled for 1.00: Paul Nicholls has saddled just seven runners in the last ten renewals of this novice hurdle event, and three of the Ditcheat raiders have snared gold, though his last two favourites (1/4 & 6/4) have ‘only‘ secured silver medals.  Paul held two options at the five-day stage.  Seven favourites have won during the last fifteen years, whilst thirteen of the last fifteen winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less.  Eleven of the fifteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Two and a half mile novice chase scheduled for 2.05: Nicky Henderson has secured five of the last twelve renewals and the trainer’s only entry at the five-day stage was his Ascot winner Hadrain’s Approach.  Five favourites have won during the last decade, whilst the last fourteen winners have scored at 10/1 or less.  Nine of the fifteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the extended study period.

‘Pertemps’ three mile qualifier scheduled for 2.40: Six of the seven favourites to date secured toteplacepot positions (five winners), with market leaders coming to this year’s gig on a five-timer.

Class 3 Maiden Hurdle scheduled for 3.45: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals, whilst Nicky Henderson has claimed three victories during the last decade.  Six of the eleven favourites have won to date, the other four starting prices being returned at 50/1-16/1-8/1-11/2-7/2.  Eight of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: It took a while (Saturday) for Simon Dow to register a victory since the end of the turf season but now that he has, Simon’s 6/18 ratio here at Dunstall Park during the last five years is worth noting.  Simon has produced seventeen points of level stake profits during the period.

 

SATURDAY 01/12:

Bangor:

General stats: Only six of the potentially represented trainers at Bangor on Saturday have saddled more than fourteen winners at Bangor during the last five years (Strike rate in brackets): 65 Donald McCain (20%)–28 Jonjo O’Neill (11%)–18 Alan King (20%)–18 Nicky Henderson (30%)–16 Tim Vaughan (19%)–15 Rebecca Curtis (27%).

 

Newbury:

General stats: Nick Williams only has two entries at the three-day meeting, with Diamond Harry and Alfie Spinner both due to contest the Hennessy Gold Cup, with ‘Harry’ having won the big handicap two years ago at odds of 6/1.  Nick’s ratio at Newbury stands at 27% via eight winners at the Berkshire venue.

Amateur riders’ handicap chase event scheduled for 12.15: All five winners have carried weights of 11-4 or less, whilst three of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (two winners).  The biggest priced winner to date was returned at 9/1.

Grade 2 ‘Long Distance Hurdle’ scheduled for 2.35: Big Bucks comes into the race on a four timer.  Ten of the last 13 favourites have won this World Hurdle ‘trial’, whilst thirteen of the last fifteen winners were returned at 6/1 or less.  Thirteen of the last fifteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Additional stats (see the opening paragraphs for the main facts and figures) for the Hennessy Gold Cup which is scheduled for 3.10:  Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals of the Hennessy Gold Cup. Four favourites have won the Hennessy Gold Cup in the last 15 years, though just two of the other eleven market leaders have additionally secured toteplacepot positions.

‘Jim Joel Trophy’ scheduled for 3.40: Seven-year-olds have won six of the last fourteen contests.  Paul Nicholls (three) and Nicky Henderson (two) have secured five of the last eight contests between them.  Four of the last eleven favourites have won, whilst six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the period.  Fourteen of the last fifteen winners have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

 

Newcastle:

General stats: Two 25/1 winners have emerged in the ’Fighting Fifth’ during the last nine years.  Tony McCoy was due to partner Darlan in the race at the time of writing with Tony’s recent ratio standing at 4/11 at Gosforth Park.

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 1.45: Favourites have won four of the last nine renewals.  Sue Smith has saddled 14/1 and 2/1* winners in the last two renewals in which the trainer has been represented.  Sue’s only option this year is her Kayf Tara gelding Papa Curuso.

‘Fighting Fifth’ scheduled for 2.20: Five-year-olds have won six of the last ten renewals and half of this year’s six declarations potentially represent the vintage this time around.  Donald McCain (Cinders And Ashes) comes to the gig on a hat trick this time around.

‘Rehearsal Chase’ scheduled for 3.25: Eight-year-olds have won the last three contests, whilst three favourites have won via eight renewals during the last decade.

 

Towcester:

General stats: Zermatt would be an interesting horse in the closing bumper event if given the green light by trainer John Quinn.  John has saddled three of the six runners he has sent to Towcester to winning effect in recent times.  Of the popular (potentially represented) trainers who saddle plenty of winners at the venue, Alan King (25%) and David Pipe (24%) head the strike rates during the last five years.

Novice Hurdle event for mares scheduled for 12.25: Five-year-olds come to the gig on a five-timer on this occasion.  The last three favourites have obliged, as have five of the last seven market leaders.

Novice hurdle qualifier scheduled for 2.45: Five-year-olds have dominated this race of late, securing six of the last nine contests.  Four renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged when lading a hat trick of victories for market leaders.

Three mile handicap hurdle contest scheduled for 2.10: Just two (5/4 & 7/4) market leaders have prevailed via the last eight renewals, which equates to a level stake loss of three points during the period.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Jamie Osborne is the leading trainer on three winners (at the start of the week) at Wolverhampton since the end of the turf season.  Jamie’s winners have scored at 20/1, 13/2 & 11/8*.  Fifteen market leaders (including joint and co favourites) had won via forty races (37.5%) at the time of writing, whilst four of the five odds on favourites have scored.