Stat of the Day, 28th November 2012
Rosoff put in a battling display for us yesterday, but when push came to shove on the run in, he didn’t have as much to give as the two horses in front of him. He only went down by a couple of lengths in the end, but nevertheless it’s a losing bet, as he could only finish 3rd at 5/2.
No UK turf action today and the ground looks particularly testing over at Limerick. There is, however, an almost overwhelming choice of three (yes, three!) All-Weather cards for us to aim at, so we’re to enjoy a teatime spin around the Polytrack at Sunbury-on-Thames, where nine runners will tackle a ten furlong handicap in the…
Today’s selection was actually our selection at Kempton last Thursday (22nd November), but he was withdrawn at lunchtime that day. The reasoning behind today’s pick is, therefore, pretty much as it was last week!
In the last twelve months or so Michael Squance has had 16 runners in handicap contests here at Kempton, yielding six winners (37.5%) and a total of 10 placed horses (62.5%). Backing each of the 16 runners to a £10 stake has generated a profit of £510.
The bare stats don’t always tell the full story, of course and it must be mentioned that the figures are skewed slightly by one horse, today’s SotD selection and Michael’s only runner anywhere today: Diplomatic.
Diplomatic is a horse that just loves the A/W surfaces as all of his five career wins have been on Polytrack. Aside from a solitary 33/1 win at Lingfield in February, his other four victories have all been here at Kempton, where his record reads 11221012 for 44pts profit.
Michael Squance’s record excluding Diplomatic is still creditable, but this horse is rapidly turning into a Kempton specialist. Today, however, represents the horse’s first crack at this trip, but has often looked like he wanted to go further in the past. Harry Poulton takes the ride today, this will the third time he’s been on board, having finished 2nd at 11/1 a fortnight ago and having won at 25/1 back in October, both races here at Kempton. Harry seems to be able to get a good tune out of the horse and he also takes a very useful 5lbs off today, which should help Diplomatic remain competitive.
The fact that it’s the horse’s first crack at the longer trip is reflected in the market, but I can’t help but feel that William Hill’s offer of 8/1 BOG is longer than it should be, so I’m more than happy to take them up on it. Therefore, my play today is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Diplomatic at 8/1 BOG with William Hill, but please feel free to…