Sat TV Trends 1st Dec 2012

Can Carruthers win back-to-back Hennessys?

It’s Hennessy Gold Cup day at Newbury this Saturday, while there’s also LIVE C4 action up at Newcastle…

Newbury (C4/RUK)

2.00 – Sportingbet Long Distance Hurdle Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 3m110y

9/10 – Placed favourites
9/10 – Grade One winner over hurdles
9/10 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
8/10 – Winning favourites
8/10 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
8/10 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
7/10 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
7/10 – Ran at either Aintree (4) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
7/10 – Had won a hurdles race at Newbury before
6/10 – Won last time out
6/10 – Went onto win that season’s World Hurdle
6/10 – French bred
6/10 – Returned odds-on in the betting
5/10 – Won by a previous winner of the race
3/10 – Won by Big Buck’s and Paul Nicholls
2/10 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is

2.35 – Sportingbet Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-150) CH4 2m3f

No previous runnings
Paul Nicholls has a 24% record with his hurdlers here
Nicky Henderson has a 21% record with his hurdlers here
Nigel Twiston-Davies is just 1 from 40 (3%) with his hurdlers at the track
Ruby Walsh has a 33% record when riding over hurdles at Newbury
AP McCoy has a 29% record when riding over hurdles here
Tom Scudamore is just 2 from 42 (5%) when riding over hurdles at the course

3.10 – Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 3m2f110y

9/10 – Won over fences, over at least 3m previously
9/10 – Raced at Newbury previously (5 had won over fences at the course)
9/10 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
8/10 – Won between 2-5 previous chase races
8/10 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
8/10 – Won a Grade 3 or better class chase race previously
7/10 – Officially rated between 140 and 151
7/10 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
7/10 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
7/10 – Placed in the first 3 in their last race
7/10 – Won by a horse aged either 6 or 7 years-old
7/10 – Raced at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (5) in their previous race
5/10 – Favourites unplaced
5/10 – Raced already that season
5/10 – Irish-bred horse
5/10 – Won their last race
3/10 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
3/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/10 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/10 – Trained by the Pipe stable
The last horse to win back-to-back Hennessy Gold Cups was Arkle (1964-65)
There have been 11 winners (50%) aged 7 years-old since 1990 (22 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 9/1
Only been one winner aged in double-figures since 1968 (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)

3.40 – Sportingbet Handicap Chase (for the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-145) CH4 2m1f

9/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Had won a UK chase race over 2m1f
7/10 – Had won between 2-5 chase races in the UK
7/10 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
7/10 – French bred
7/10 – Officially rated between 126-135
7/10 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
6/10 – Placed in their last race
6/10 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
5/10 – Unplaced favourites
3/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/10 – Won a chase race at Newbury before
2/10 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/10 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/10 – Ridden by AP McCoy
2/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/2

Newcastle (C4/ATR)

2.20 – StanJames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 2m

10/10 – Placed in the first two in their previous race
10/10 – Won a hurdles race over at least 2m previously
9/10 – Won at least a Grade 2 hurdle during their career
9/10 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that same season
8/10 – Favourites that won
8/10 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles
7/10 – Won their previous race
7/10 – Officially rated 151 or higher
7/10 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
6/10 – Finish in the top 5 in the Champion Hurdle later that season
5/10 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
4/10 – Won by an Irish bred
3/10 – Won by an Irish based stable
2/10 – Raced over hurdles at Newcastle previously
1/10 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that same season (2008 Punjabi)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

3.25 – At The Races Rehearsal Chase Handicap (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 3m

8/8 – Didn’t win their last race
8/8 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
7/8 – Irish bred
7/8 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
7/8 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 3m
6/8 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
5/8 – Had won at least 4 times over fences in the UK
5/8 – Unplaced last time out
5/8 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
4/8 – Aged 8 years-old
4/8 – Unplaced favourites
4/8 – Ran at either Cheltenham (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
3/8 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/8 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/8 – Ridden by Andrew Thornton
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

Note: The 2002, 2003, & 2004 runnings were at Chepstow