Stat of the Day, 2nd December 2012
December didn’t get under way for SotD yesterday as my plan to avoid poor racing conditions backfired. To avoid some the boggy and false ground around, we’d gone to Wolverhampton, but unfortunately they had issues with the course freezing and balling up and had to abandon the meeting after three races.
There is All-Weather racing planned for Kempton today, but it’s a card full of NH Bumper races, so we’ll steer clear of that and tackle a Class 4 Handicap Chase over 3 miles instead! Thirteen runners are set to go post for what looks an interesting battle for the…
Giles Smyly isn’t one of the more famous trainers currently working the circuit, but he’s got a decent record in chases at Leicester, albeit from a small sample size. In fact, since 2008, he has only been represented in five races at this track and all were chase events.
His record from those five races reads 21123, a 40% win strike rate generating 7pts profit at level stakes, whilst the 100% place record has produced E/W profits of almost 13pts.
This record is, admittedly, skewed by one horse: Plum Pudding, who has featured in three of those five races, gaining two wins and a third place finish, all over today’s course and distance, making 9pts profit at level stakes. Needless to say, Giles has just the one runner today and you’ll not be surprised to read that the horse is indeed Plum Pudding once again.
He won a 3m Warwick handicap in December and ran just as well when chasing home the improving Loch Ba at Kempton last month on his reappearance from an eight month break. He’ll probably come on a bit more for that run and a 2lb drop in he weights is sure to help too.
He’s a dual C&D winner and has won four chases in total at the 2m 7f to 3m distance bracket on a variety of ground from good to soft. Today’s jockey will be David England, whose record on board Plum Pudding reads 132, the victory being that 18/1 success at Warwick on New Year’s Eve.
So, we know he gets the course and the distance and we know he’s in decent nick, so I’d be expecting at least a place finish today.
I’ve actually written this piece at 1.00am, as I’m off out for most of the day today: leaving home at 6am. This means that not all firms have priced this one up just yet, but at the time of this being published, both Paddy Power and William Hill were offering 7/1 BOG, which I’m happy enough with.
Therefore, my play today is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Plum Pudding at 7/1 BOG with Paddy Power, but you might want to wait until the full markets are available, when you really should…