Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2012
Hopefully it’s a case of third time lucky, as we attempt to get December up and running. Saturday’s race abandonment was followed by Plum Pudding’s withdrawal yesterday: he was actually one of seven non-runners from that race alone!
There’s a couple of all-weather meetings today, but we’re going to shun those and take a trip to East Sussex for a trappy looking Class 3 Mares’ Handicap Hurdle. The ground is unsurprisingly described as Soft for the nine runners expected to slog it out over 3 miles 1.5 furlongs in the…
In recent years at Plumpton, one of the best performing trainers in hurdle races just has to be Miss Suzy Smith. The sample size is decent, as we see she’s sent sixteen hurdlers to the track in last two years (ten to compete in handicaps).
From those runners, she has secured five winners at a strike rate of 31.25% for level stake profits of 12pts = 75% ROI. She’s also 5/10 for +18pts (180% ROI) in handicap hurdles. And 10 of the original 16 have made the frame (7/10 in handicaps)
One of her charges in particular has performed really well at this track and Madame Jasmine is our selection today.
Madame Jasmine‘s career hurdling record is 3 wins and 3 places from 15 races, generating 5pts profit at level stakes, but she has become something of a course specialist, with a record here of 15121, making some 15pts in the process. Plumpton is the only track she’s ever won at and a return here is sure to suit her.
Her October victory (admittedly off a 6lb lower mark) was her third Course & Distance win and the going should hold no additional fears for her. Soft ground suits her running style as she is 311 on soft ground (including one of those C&D victories), so I’d expect another strong display despite the rise in weight.
Her latest win here was some six weeks ago when she beat the re-opposing Twin Bud by half a length and she can confirm that form today, a she’s only actually a pound worse off with that horse, who carries bottom weight today.
The track suits the trainer and the horse. The horse gets the trip and the going and I expect her to be there or thereabouts today.
The current best price (9.45am) is 7/2 BOG with both Stan James and William Hill, so the play today is a straight 1pt win bet on Madame Jasmine at 7/2 BOG. I’m going to use William Hill today, but you can take your pick by taking the opportunity to…