Stat of the Day, 5th December 2012
Yesterday must have been the shortest time a SotD horse has ever been in contention, as Arctic Watch fell at the first fence. We’re obviously hoping for a bit more of a run for our money today, but it has been quite tricky finding a suitable selection. Roger Varian has some interesting runners today, but they already seem too short in the markets to offer much value, but we’ve got an outsider for you running in a 1 mile handicap on the Polytrack. No weather concerns here for the twelve runners contesting the…
It’s not all about the trainer today, but it should be noted that although William Knight’s strike rate at Lingfield is respectable, it’s not the best on display. However, despite his strike rate at the track being under 20% (this is considered low for SotD purposes!), his 40 winners from 207 races (19.32% to be precise) have racked up highly impressive profits of just under £1400 to a £10 level stake at SP, a profit on investment of some 67%. A place strike rate of three in every eight has seen E/W backers make profits of 146pts.
After the withdrawal of Dusty Red from the 1.00 race, Mr Knight is now left with just one runner today, the track specialist Titan Triumph, our pick for today.
Titan Triumph has a whole host of stats we can call upon today, 6 wins and 6 further places over 1 mile on all-weather, giving a win return of +19pts and +26.5pts for E/W backers. He has won seven times on Lingfield’s polytrack from 26 attempts with a further seven place finishes, making win profits of 17.3pts and another 26.3pts at E/W stakes.
These numbers inevitably leads us to look at his impressive returns over today’s course and distance. He’s a five times C&D winner with five further places, all from just fifteen races. A 33.33% strike rate isn’t to be sniffed at, nor are the 16.5 pts profits made from those races. The 10/15 place record has made 23.1pts for E/W backers.
However, there is a note of caution and one that any detractors will pick up quite easily: his recent form has been poor to say the least, but the majority of his recent runs have been away from Lingfield and over a shorter trip. He does prefer the Lingfield mile and he seems to come alive at this time of year. November and December seem to be the best times to catch him over this course and distance: his record in these two months currently reads 31112, giving 6.53pts profits and 10.6pts at E/W stakes.
He also hasn’t actually won a race since his last course victory here back in March, but he’s now returning to his optimum trip 5lbs better off than he was during that victory.
There’s plenty in his favour today, there’s also plenty against him and this is, of course, reflected in the market. The race itself looks a very open contest and I think we’ve a fighting chance of a place today. The fact that BetVictor are offering 22/1 BOG means that even a place will provide us with a decent return, so the obvious call today is 0.5pts E/W on Titan Triumph at 22/1 BOG with BetVictor. 20/1 BOG is widely available elsewhere, if you’ve not got a BetVictor account, so feel free to…