Stat of the Day, 6th December 2012
The less said about yesterday’s ride, the better, I think. Anyone who watched the race will agree it was a poor showing.
With doubts about the weather abound (Market Rasen is already off, Leicester are re-inspecting later and I’ve not heard from Wincanton), we’re going to stay on the Polytrack for another Handicap contest. This time it’s a Class 4 event over the minimum trip of 5 furlongs and 10 runners are set to enter the stalls for the…
Regular readers of SotD will know that I’m a fan of Roger Varian, particularly on the All-Weather tracks and his record at Lingfield in handicap races is very impressive.
His record over the last twelve months in these contests reads 3114501133, a 40% win strike rate generating 7.5pts profit and 7 placed from 10 has rewarded E/W backers with a profit of six points at SP.
Roger has just one runner today and that’s the 3 yr old bay filly Havin a Good Time.
Since she’s only a 3 yr old, she doesn’t have as much experience behind her as some of the rivals she faces today, but she is also far less exposed. Today will be just her eighth start, but she has already clocked up three wins and a place from just six attempts at this trip (her debut outing was over 6f). She has won two out of three races on the all-weather and she already has a Lingfield victory under her belt, albeit on turf.
The decent start to her career and inevitably led to a rise in the weights and this is reflected in the price available today. At 9.25am 13/2 was available with Stan James.
I’d never discount a Roger Varian entrant in a handicap race, he never seems content to merely make up the numbers and I think we could be Havin A Good Time come 3pm this afternoon. Our selection has a decent chance of taking this one today, but due to the price on offer the prudent call is a 0.5pt E/W bet on Havin a Good Time at 13/2 BOG with Stan James. Other firms are offering 6/1 and you may get higher on the exchanges (Betfair were at 7.8 at 9.25am), so feel free to…