Sat TV Trends: 8th Dec 2012

Action over the GN fences this weekend

A great Saturday in prospect with the Becher Chase at Aintree and the Tingle Creek from Sandown to look forward to….

Sandown (C4/RUK)

1.55 – Markel Insurance Henry VIII Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 2m

9/9 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
9/9 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
9/9 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Won last time out
8/9 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Arkle Chase (1 won)
8/9 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
8/9 – Placed favourites
8/9 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 2m
8/9 – Aged 6 or younger
7/9 – French (4) or Irish (3) bred
7/9 – Raced at either Cheltenham (4) or Warwick (3) last time out
6/9 – Winning distance – 2 ¾ lengths or more
5/9 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/9 – Winners went onto finish 1^st or 2^nd in that season’s Arkle Chase
3/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/9 – Ridden by Timmy Murphy
2/9 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 2/1

2.30 –Sportingbet Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+ 0-150) CH4 2m110y

9/9 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/9 – Raced within the last month
9/9 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
8/9 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Aged 4,5 or 6 years-old
7/9 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
7/9 – Won last time out
7/9 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
7/9 – Carried 10-13 or less
7/9 – Rated between 116-128
5/9 – Irish bred
5/9 – Unplaced favourites
2/9 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/9 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 7/1

3.05 –Sportingbet Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 2m

10/10 – Came in the top 3 in their previous race
10/10 – Priced 6/1 or shorter
9/10 – Won a Grade One chase previously
9/10 –  Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
8/10 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
8/10 – Rated 165 or higher
8/10 – Went onto race in the Champion Chase later that season
8/10 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
8/10 – Favourites placed
7/10 – Won at least 4 times over fences previously
7/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/10 – Won their last race
7/10 – Run within the last 4 weeks
7/10 – Won by a French-bred
7/10 – Won by a horse aged between 5-8 years-old
6/10 – Favourites won (1 joint)
6/10 – Won a chase race at Sandown previously
3/10 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/10 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/10 – Won the Champion Chase (Master Minded & Moscow Flyer) at the Cheltenham Festival that same season
1/10 – Won the Gold Cup (Kauto Star) at the Cheltenham Festival later that season
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/4

3.40 – Sportingbet London National (Handicap Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+ 0-150) CH4 3m5f110y

8/8 – Aged 8 or older
8/8 – Won between 2-6 times over fences before
8/8 – Had won (fences) over at least 3m before
8/8 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
7/8 – Unplaced favourites
7/8 – Rated 126 or higher
6/8 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
6/8 – Carried 11-0 or more
6/8 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
5/8 – Had raced over fences at Sandown before (2 won)
4/8 – Irish bred
4/8 – Ran at either Cheltenham (2) or Towcester (2) last time out
3/8 – Won last time out
2/8 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
0/8 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 13/2

Aintree (C4/RUK)

2.10 – Betfred Becher Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (6yo+) CH4 3m2f

8/10 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
8/10 – Raced no more than once that season
8/10 – Won between 2-5 times over fences previously
7/10 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
7/10 – Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
7/10 – Run within the last 6 weeks
7/10 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
7/10 – Rated between 123-138
6/10 – Finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
6/10 – Had run at Aintree previously
5/10 – Raced over the Grand National-style fences previously
5/10 – Favourites placed
4/10 – Returned at double-figure odds
4/10 – Raced in the previous season’s Grand National
3/10 – Won by an Irish-based stable
3/10 – Won their last race
3/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/10 – Won the Grand National later in their career
2/10 – Favourites that won
0/10 – Won the Grand National that same season
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has landed the prize 4 times since 1993

3.20 – Betfred “Goals Galore” Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) (6yo+) CH4 2m5f110y

7/7 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
6/7 – Aged 8 or older
5/7 – Had won (chase) over at least 2m5f before
5/7 – Had raced within the last 3 weeks
5/7 – Irish bred
5/7 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
5/7 – Winning distance 2 ½ lengths or more
5/7 – Rated 124 or more
4/7 – Carried 10-12 or more
4/7 – Had run at Aintree before (2 over the GN style fences)
4/7 – Returned a double-figure price
1/7 – Won last time out
1/7 – Winning favourites
1/7 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (5^th)
The average winning SP in the last 7 years is 10/1