Well I Declare, 7th December

Well I Declare, 7th December

Well I Declare, 7th December

Just a quick reminder of Mal Boyle’s Well I Declare feature, which previews the action from Sandown, Exeter and Lingfield for…

FRIDAY (07/12):

Sandown:

General stats: David Arbuthnot does not saddle many horses these days (especially under the NH code) whereby his three potential runners at Sandown on Friday attract the eye, especially as David boasts a 25% strike rate at the venue during the last five years.  David has secured an LSP reading of eleven points during the study period for good measure. 

Juvenile hurdle event scheduled for 12.50: Favourites have won four of the nine renewals during the last decade, whilst seven of the ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.  That said, hot favourites at 1/4 and 4/5 have been beaten from a win perspective, albeit the biggest priced winner during the study period was sent off at just 8/1.

Class 3 two and a half mile handicap chase due to be contested at 1.20:  The last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-13 during which time, three market leaders prevailed.

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Grade 2 two and a half mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.55: Four and five-year-olds have secured four victories apiece via the last nine renewals, whilst Paul Nicholls and Alan have both ‘bagged a brace’.  Although only one favourite has scored via the last five contests, four market leaders have won during the study period with the biggest priced winner returned at just 11/2.  Seven of the nine favourites secured toteplacepot positions.

Listed ‘Future Stars’ steeplechase scheduled for 2.30: Paul Nicholls has secured four of the last nine renewals with course winner Pacha Du Polder potentially representing the yard this time around.  Seven-year-olds have secured five victories during the period, with Grove Pride hopefully taking part as Henry Daly’s gelding attempts to secure a hat trick in terms of vintage representatives.

Class 4 two miles handicap hurdle for novices due to be contested at 3.40: Five-year-olds have secured three of the last four renewals of Sandown’s scheduled finale.  Eight of the last nine winners have carried weights of 11-5 or more, statistics which include the last six gold medallists.

 

Exeter:

General stats: There are not too many racecourses where Tony McCoy’s ratio of winners is usurped but with Jason Maguire sitting on the 28% mark at Exeter, even the champion jockey has played ‘second fiddle’ in recent years. 

Nineteen furlong conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 1.00: Six-year-olds have won six renewals during the last decade during which time, two favourites have prevailed.  The last eight winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less.

Nineteen furlong novice chase event due to be contested at 1.30: Six-year-olds again rule the roost as vintage representatives have snared four of the last five renewals.  Four favourites have won via eight contests with the biggest priced winner returned at just 6/1.  Philip Hobbs is the only trainer to have saddled two winners and Philip’s only entry earlier in the week was six-year-old Fingal Bay.

Four mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.05: Some readers might suggest that six nine-year-old winners of this event during the last decade can be put down to pure coincidence though if that is so, why do plenty of professionals within the sport suggest that only nine and ten-year-olds should be seriously considered in the Grand National?  The vintage records of the relevant raiders down the years have been proved right via a general rule of thumb whereby I will stick to the principle in this extreme marathon event, albeit only two of the sixteen five-day acceptors were nine-year-olds!  No successful favourites were recorded during the last decade, with just one of the last six market leaders having finished in the frame.

Seventeen furlong novice hurdle ‘qualifier’ scheduled for 2.40: Five-year-olds have secured seven victories during the last decade, with four-year-olds ‘mopping up’ the other three events.  Only two favourites have won during the study period though that said, nine market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.  Workbench was the only potential Paul Nicholls runner in the race earlier in the week, Paul being the only trainer to have won this race on two occasions in recent times.

Class 4, three-mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.15: Six-year-olds have won four of the nine renewals during the last decade whilst just two favourites have obliged.  The last eight winners have scored at 10/1 or less.  Only one of the last fifteen runners sent off at 11/1 or more has finished in the frame (no winners).

Exeter’s closing bumper event scheduled for 3.50: Four favourites have won via eight renewals during the last decade.  Seven gold medallists were returned at odds of 7/2 or less.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: John Gosden’s 23% strike rate is backed up by an LSP figure of twenty-five points during the last five years.

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