Well I Declare, 8th December

Well I Declare, 8th December

Racing action from Sandown, Aintree, Wetherby and Chepstow are all featured in Mal Boyle’s Well I Declare for..

…SATURDAY (08/12):

Sandown:

General stats: Five favourites (of one description or another) won via twelve races during the two-day meeting last year, whilst two of the four odds on favourites obliged. 

National Hunt Novice Hurdle due to be contested at 12.20: Nicky Henderson has saddled four of the last six winners of this event with the trainer coming to the gig on this occasion on a four timer.  All four winners saddled by Nicky were five-year-old and two of his three entries earlier in the week hailed from that vintage.  Favourites came to the party on a six timer last year but the 4/6 market leader could only finish third.

Pertemps series qualifier scheduled for 1.25: Paul Nicholls has saddled the only two successful favourites (in the last four years) during the decade.  Paul held two entries for the contest earlier in the week, as did Jonjo O’Neill who is the only other trainer to have saddled two winners during the study period.

Listed Handicap Hurdle event scheduled for 2.30: Eight of the last nine winners have scored at odds of 9/1 or less (two winning favourites), whilst four-year-olds have secured four of the last eight contests.

Twenty nine furlong handicap chase scheduled for 3.40: The last six winners have carried a minimum weight of eleven stones, whilst the eight successful horses during the last decade ranged between 7/2 and 10/1, with not a single favourite amongst them.

Aintree:

General stats: The Murphy yard is potentially represented by the course and distance winner Quito De La Roque in the scheduled 1.50 event with the stable looking to improve its ratio to 3/3 at Aintree.

Maiden hurdle event scheduled for 12.00: Favourites have secured two of the five renewals of this event in which three market leaders have finished in the frame.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 1.35: Six-year-olds have won six renewals of this event during the last decade.  Last year’s successful 5/1 favourite was the first to score in seven years since back to back 5/1 joint market leaders obliged in 2003/2004.   Six of the last nine winners have carried a minimum weight of 11-5.

‘Becher Chase’ due to be contested at 2.10: Just like last week’s ‘Hennessy’, this race is finally being won by fancied horses on a semi regular basis following years of renewals which favoured the bookmakers.  Only one market leader has obliged in the last seven years though that said, seven of the last nine contests have been secured by horses sent off at odds of 10/1 or less.  Unusually, Paul Nicholls was potentially represented by just one horse in this year’s event, a race which Paul has secured three times in the last eight years.  Join Together is the horse in question.

Class 2 two and a half mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.45: Four renewals have slipped by without a winning favourite being recorded following the success of four consecutive market leaders (of one description or another) between 2004 and 2007.  Four-year-olds have been the most successful vintage (four winners during the last decade) though that said, just three of the twenty-two five-day acceptors hailed from the junior ranks.

‘Grand Sefton’ event scheduled for 3.20: Eight and nine-year-olds have (equally) shared the last four renewals, whilst five contests have passed without a successful favourite being registered.  That said, five of the nine favourites have secured win and place positions which is a decent enough record in this type of event.

Wetherby:

General stats: Tim Easterby does not lead the strike rate figures, though his regular winners at Wetherby are backed up by an LSP reading of twenty-six points.

Chepstow:

General stats: John O’Shea’s LSP figure of eighty-one points demands attention.