Stat of the Day, 10th December 2012
When it’s not running for you, it’s not running for you. SotD is no more immune to runs of misfortune than anyone else, and yesterday typified its recent luck. 11/2 nominee, Greywell Boy, was backed in to 4/1 favouritism and ran a fine race… but could only finish second. In what is becoming time honoured tradition, the other mentioned horse, George Nympton, obliged – at a good enough 3/1.
But that’s the past, and we’re concerned now only with the future. A change of chair as Chris takes some time out, and I hop back into the driving seat. And today, I’m driving ‘back to the future’ for a horse which has featured here before, in the…
They race at Musselburgh, and the going is good to soft, which is the first time for a while I’ve seen the word ‘good’ in the going description anywhere. Kate Walton is a lady who fares pretty well at the outer Edinburgh track, and her overall figures are five winners from 25 runners in recent seasons.
Those winners were worth a profit of 13 units. But, it must be said, four of that quintet of victories were provided by a single horse, Everaard.
Luckily for us (I hope!), Everaard lines up here, and there are plenty of reasons to be hopeful. Despite recent figures of 7PP877, Everaard looks to be very well suited by today’s race conditions.
For instance, this is a three mile half a furlong handicap hurdle, class five. Everaard has won three of his four races here over this distance (the other being a handicap chase over 110 yards less). He’s won all of his three hurdle races here in handicaps, and they were in Class 4 twice, and Class 3 once. Today he drops down to the basement, and a Class 5 event.
Everaard must have ground with ‘good’ in the description, as all of his five career wins (four NH, one flat) have done. Today, the going is good to soft. His form over the course and distance here is 13117. The ‘3’ in that sequence came in this race last year, and he might have been closer than six lengths adrift of the winner had he not bungled the third last.
It’s fair to say that Everaard has not been in good form lately, as evidenced by the 7’s and P’s on his score card. But a return to optimal conditions should see him return to competitiveness, and he’s a handy seven pounds lower than his last win, which was off a mark of 107.
Everaard is currently trading at 15/2 with Paddy Power, and that looks fair about a horse with plenty of things in his favour today. He might like it a bit quicker ideally, but he couldn’t have asked for any more elements to align for him, and I suggest a brave win only wager (though you may choose to bet each way yourself!). As ever, you can…